We spoke to Sos Grande to understand his positions.
Futures:
Long /ZB and /ZN: Tom is speculating on falling Treasury yields by being long on 30-year Bond and 10-year Note futures respectively. *Reminder - price is inverse to yields.
Long /6J: Tom has a long position in Japanese Yen futures. He is betting on the Yen appreciating against the dollar.
Long /RTY and Short /ES: Tom's strategy involves a pair trade favoring small-cap stocks (Russell 2000) over large-caps (S&P 500), hinging on stronger performance from smaller companies. For less exposure, he could opt for micro futures (/M2K vs /MES) or ETFs (IWM vs SPY).
ETFs:
Short SPY and QQQ: Tom is anticipating a potential decline in the U.S. stock market and Nasdaq 100 index.
Stocks:
Long BA, TSLA, AAPL: Tom's bullish bets on Boeing, Tesla, and Apple.
Short MSFT and NVDA: Shorting Microsoft and NVIDIA.
If you didn't catch it last week!
Scalping Zones for the futures!
The 50th, 75th, and 95th percentiles represent median, above-average, and extreme daily price fluctuations, respectively, in futures trading. These figures help traders gauge typical, higher-than-usual, and rare volatility levels, aiding in strategy formulation and risk assessment for potential intraday scalping opportunities.
As an example, 50 percent of intraday movements in the S&P 500 (/ES) have been 46 points from the top to the bottom of price. Only 5% have been greater than 93 points.
Two Trade Ideas
TSLA Call CRAB Trade (MAY/APR)
Has Elon fallen out of favor? TSLA has significantly lagged the rest of the Mag 7, down over -30% vs the Nasdaq up almost 8%. With the down move IV has stayed bid, with IVR around 50 currently. If you think there might be a catchup trade, a call CRAB trade is a way to play for an up move while holding some short term positive decay. Long the 180 call in MAY provides the positive delta/gamma, against the 2x/1x 195/210 call spread provides the theta decay into earnings for just a $5.44 debit.
MSFT Short Call Spread (APR)
The new largest market cap stock (3 trillion!) in the world has maintained strength into the last week or so of market weakness. The 52 week high sits at around $427, if you think that high holds for the next couple weeks, a short call spread in April short the 430/440 trades at just under 1/3rd the width of the strikes, and provides around 8 short delta.
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