TGIT: The Rent is Too Damn High (and other stories)

Housing trends, hot friends, put spreads, baseball bets, re-fis, risk-takers, Dr. Dog and much more. First time reading? Join other risk-takers, entrepreneurs, traders, investors, data geeks and alpha types. Sign up for free here.

TGI Thursday! And what a week in baseball. The Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani has pulled off a remarkable 50+ home run season with 50+ stolen bases, the Chicago White Sox (38-120) are set to have the worst season in modern baseball history, President Biden took some softballs on The View and former President Trump steps into the batter’s box today to swing at a fastball from special prosecutor Jack Smith, who’s pitching 180 pages of Jan. 6 evidence to a federal court. 

This week, in the Biden administration’s first major antitrust case against a financial services company, the Justice Department sued Visa, alleging the global payments giant of monopolizing the debit card industry. Visa's stock price has since dropped 7%. In unrelated news, Paul Pelosi, husband of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, sold somewhere between $500,000 and $1 million in Visa stock several weeks earlier. 

From 2007 to 2020, Paul Pelosi’s trading netted more than $30 million. Imagine how much better he might have done with a Luckbox T-shirt! Five will be awarded to random readers who share their opinions in our election survey. 

Finally, the U.S. housing market is experiencing a decline in demand while supply has increased to the highest level seen in any August since 2018. Despite mortgage rates decreasing for the past 10 months, home prices have dropped. That indicates a cooling housing market. Will the recent Federal Reserve cut in interest rates provide new opportunities in housing and mortgage-related stocks? That’s our focus this week. Now, let’s get lucky. 

Editorial Director

Is it BlackRock, Blackstone, or both? And what’s happening to nearly half a million single-family houses around the country? We have answers. Read Full Story

Priced out of the housing market, half of Americans aged 18 to 29 are living with their parents. Yes, half. Many would have to shell out 40% of their income to get a place of their own. Read Full Story

$412,000 — The median price of homes sold in the U.S. at the end of July, up $90,000 (28%) from 2019.

— Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Homeowners are rushing to refinance as mortgage rates drop to two-year lows. Applications surged 20% last week and were 175% higher than a year ago as the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.13%. Now that there’s some wind at their backs, mortgage lending companies are worth a look. Our analyst has a short list. Read Full Story

Anticipation of how the Fed's rate cut might boost the real estate sector has lifted Zillow (Z) to 52-week highs, and Wedbush has upgraded it to "outperform" with an $80 price target. With more cuts likely this year, our analyst breaks down the company’s short- and longer-term prospects. Read Full Story

Short put spreads are a defined risk, directionally-neutral-to-bullish position that benefits from time decay. Options allow flexibility to reduce directional exposure and add exposure to volatility and time. So, how does this play out in real trading? Check out the latest Lifecycle of a Trade to see how to turn a short put spread position into an iron condor after a rally in the underlying stock.

Some 14% of millennials have purchased property with friends, and 70% of Gen Zers are open to co-buying, according to a Zillow survey. And there’s good reason for teaming up on real estate—the San Francisco Standard reports 44% of co-buyers are “motivated by skyrocketing home prices.” Still, 19% of co-buyers also cited proximity to friends as a priority. But either way, there’s a place for Hot Friend Compounds, a new online platform launched in 2023 with the goal of creating a one-stop shop for friends looking to buy homes together. Read Full Story

Unstoppable Ohtani ⚾️

Sure, Shohei Ohtani made headlines last December when he signed a 10-year contract for $700 million. After all, it was the biggest payday in baseball history. But the resulting notoriety pales in comparison to the attention he’s getting now for his unprecedented performance this year. Are the 60/60 Club and a World Series ring next? Read Full Story

Dr. Dog: Music's Best Kept Secret 🐶

Dr. Dog, one of the most under-appreciated bands around, has coasted under the radar for more than two decades. Starting before the dawn of the millennium, they’ve laid down their blend of ’90s indie rock and ’60s-era Beatles tunes on 11 studio albums. Read Full Story

We’re fans of Nate Silver. He’s an accomplished poker player, statistician and forecaster who founded the 538 analytics platform before moving on to the eponymous Silver Bulletin on Substack. In his latest book, On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, he advocates taking a data-driven approach to risk taking and describes the habits of highly successful risk-takers. The bottom line? If you think you’re a “Riverian” after reading our review, you’ll be On the Edge in short order. Read Full Story

More Cowbell

21 million people spend more than 30% of their income on rent. 
A neuroscientist explains how to work smarter vs. harder. 
Want to live longer? Lift weights. 
Drink three cups of coffee a day to live even longer. 
Caitlan Clark’s record-setting Rookie-of-the-Year season. 
The NYT’s ranking of NFL teams after Week 3. (A new #1)  
Was legalizing sports gambling a huge mistake? 

One side has a statistical advantage in a coin flip.

Take our election survey for a shot at a Luckbox tee. 

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