TGIT: Torpedo Tariffs, Tesla, Toyota and Auto Trader Ideas

Cathie Wood's infatuation with Tesla; trade ideas for GM, Stellantis, Toyota and Deutsche Bank; the gold-silver pairs trade; torpedo bats; and much more. First time reading? Join other risk-takers, entrepreneurs, traders, investors, data geeks and alpha types. Sign up for free here.

Thank goodness it's Thursday! (4/3) And what a day. Trump just dropped his economic bomb: Sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs on all imports, with higher rates for nations he deems "unfair." China gets slapped with 34%, EU with 20%. The market isn’t happy. Wall Street took its worst tumble in two years because economists fear inflation and retaliatory responses from our trading partners. At press time, the S&P 500 is back in correction territory, more than 11% off its highs. The Nasdaq is trading 16% off its highs, and the Russell 2000 is trading at the “bear market” threshold—off 20%. But Trump dismisses critics as "globalists" who've "been proven wrong" for decades.  

The president declared a "national emergency" over trade deficits, vowing yesterday’s "Liberation Day" will “make America wealthy again.” The story is yet to be written. But just as Reagan's supply-siders discovered with income taxes, there's likely a Goldilocks zone for tariffs—not too high, not too low. Former Reagan economist David Goldman argues that a 10%-15% tariff range could generate substantial revenue while minimizing economic disruption, unlike Trump's aggressive 25% automotive tariffs. 

The math is compelling: A 10% tariff on America's $3 trillion import bill yields $300 billion in revenue. If foreign exporters absorb half through thinner margins or currency adjustments, American consumers feel just a 5% price pinch—barely noticeable at the register. 

With America's international investment position sinking to negative $25 trillion and trillion-dollar trade deficits becoming routine, tariffs offer a potential partial solution to our fiscal nightmare. Combined with spending cuts and interest savings, they could slash the deficit by $700 billion. In that scenario, the goal is finding the percentage that generates maximum revenue before triggering economic havoc.

Amid the chaos, we know two things with certainty—active investors live for days like today, and we are covering the action live on tastylive and YouTube throughout the trading day. 

Stay lucky! 

Letter to Editor

Trump's new 25% tariffs on imported vehicles expose a complex reality few Americans recognize: There's no such thing as a truly "American" or "foreign" car anymore. Your Ford Mustang Mach-E comes from Mexico, while "Japanese" Hondas roll off Indiana assembly lines. BMW, that quintessential German brand, is America's leading automotive exporter by value. With nearly half of all vehicles sold here assembled elsewhere, and roughly 40% of parts in U.S.-made cars sourced internationally, these tariffs affect virtually everything with wheels. Here's what you need to know about a plan celebrated by the United Auto Workers and condemned by many economists. Read Full Story

As new 25% tariffs slam the auto industry, the "Big 3" American automakers find themselves caught in a perfect storm. With Ford down 25% and Stellantis plummeting nearly 60% over the past year, these stocks appear dramatically undervalued—but is that a buying opportunity or a warning sign? Facing skyrocketing production costs that could add $6,000 to the average vehicle price, these manufacturing giants must navigate an uncertain future with the collision of supply chain disruptions, the transition to EVs and volatile trade policies.

Among Ford (F), General Motors (GM), and Stellantis (STLA), which company is best positioned to weather this storm? With compelling valuation metrics but significant headwinds, these stocks present a high-stakes gamble for investors seeking value in turbulent times. Read Full Story

Cathie Wood's Math Adds Up:
Tesla Could Rally After Earnings 

While analysts fret over yesterday's announcement that Tesla (TSLA) deliveries have declined 13%, equities trader Errol Coleman sees an opportunity. The stock's 30% year-to-date bloodbath has created a compelling setup ahead of April 22 earnings. Noted investor Cathie Wood's $2,600 price target isn't just a matter of blind faith—it's built on Tesla's 300-million-mile self-driving dataset and the mathematical inevitability of high-margin robotaxi revenue. Each autonomous cab could generate $100,000+ annually with minimal overhead. The current $270 share price ignores Tesla's AI leadership, which Wood calls "the biggest AI play in the market—bar none."

Coleman details a directional exposure trade that aligns with historical earnings season behavior for Tesla.​ Capitalize on this pattern without excessive exposure to Musk's volatility. Read Full Story

Stock in Toyota (TM), the world’s largest automaker, has suffered a 25% beating over the past year. The drubbing occurred even though the company is quietly dominating the hybrid market and pouring billions into developing solid-state batteries. Shares trade at a P/E of just 8—less than half the sector average.

The headwinds are genuine and include disappointing Q4 earnings, looming import tariffs and mounting competition from Chinese manufacturers. Yet 16 of 23 analysts maintain "buy" ratings with substantial upside targets. Let’s look over the shoulder of Andrew Prochnow, Luckbox analyst-at-large, as he lays out a plan for exposure to this automotive Goliath. Read Full Story

Toyota sold 10.8 million vehicles in 2024 to remain world's top-selling automaker.

— Reuters

While gold trades in the rarified air at around $3,150 per ounce, a statistical outlier sits unnoticed. The gold-silver ratio has ballooned to 92—a figure so statistically absurd it exists in just 2.5% of historical cases. And history whispers an inconvenient truth: These metals tend to maintain a statistical correlation of 0.8, meaning their current estrangement is likely temporary. For the contrarian investor with functioning gray matter, this screams opportunity—specifically, a pairs trade going long silver while shorting its golden counterpart. The beautiful part? You needn't give a damn which way the precious metals market moves overall. Read Full Story

Deutsche Bank Up 40% and
Still Undervalued

Deutsche Bank (DB) has delivered a knockout 40% gain for investors so far in 2025. After years as Europe's problem child, the 155-year-old financial institution has transformed itself into a profit machine. It beat analyst expectations with €1.3 billion in Q4 earnings—nearly double the forecast. Its stock is trading at just 0.6 times book value while competitors command twice that premium. The bank has €1 trillion in assets under management, and its investment banking revenue is projected to grow 10% year-over-year. So, why aren’t investors jumping in? Read Full Story

Wood, Reimagined:
Baseball's Bat Revolution ⚾️

The unthinkable has happened in America's most tradition-bound sport: Someone finally questioned the sacred geometry of the baseball bat. The Yankees' opening weekend barrage of 15 home runs in three games with bulbous "torpedo bats" has everyone from purists to physicists scrambling to understand what we're witnessing.

Is this genuine innovation or elaborate placebo? The science is fascinatingly nuanced—these redesigned wooden clubs might sacrifice raw power for control while exploiting the psychological edge of novelty. As physicist Alan Nathan admits with professional jealousy, it took an MIT physicist to challenge 150 years of bat orthodoxy. What's remarkable isn't that someone dared reimagine baseball's most fundamental tool, but that nobody tried it sooner. In a sport obsessed with statistical minutiae, the most obvious variable remained unchanged until now. Read Full Story

NCAA Age Inflation:
23 Is the New 18  🏀

In 2019, March Madness Sweet 16 starters averaged a sprightly 20.8 years old. Fast forward to 2024, and they're clocking in at a 21.6 years. Auburn, a No. 1 seed among the Final Four, boasts a starting five averaging 23.2 years of age—older than five NBA starting lineups last week. Let that sink in. Washington's Wizards trotted out a starting five averaging 21.2 years old. What explains this absurd age inflation? It began with the 2021 rule allowing one-time transfers immediate eligibility and continued with the 2024 multi-transfer free-for-all. Those changes have transformed college basketball into a carnival of journeymen shopping their services to the highest bidder. Read Full Story

More Cowbell

Cherry Picks: Scalping ranges, AU:AG and two trade ideas. 

Check out this list of the top 10 stocks to trade in April. 

Mike Butler is hot for these four nuclear energy stocks.

JJ Kinahan suggests asking this before buying the dip. 

What “Liberation Day” means for the bond markets. 

Tastytrade goes #BallstoWallSt for testicular cancer.

Behind the scenes with Musk and team at DOGE. 

ICYMI: tastylive’s best videos of the week. 

Tariffs are terrific vs. tariffs are terrible. 

ICYMI: Last week’s Luckbox TGIT. 

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