Two shipping stocks to trade, a Treasury windfall, Ubiquiti, an options trading masterclass, zero DTE trading, Karp's manifesto, Kelly's criterion and more.
TGIT: This UK Trade Deal is a Good Start, and Other Stories
Two shipping stocks to trade, a Treasury windfall, Ubiquiti, an options trading masterclass, zero DTE trading, Karp's manifesto, Kelly's criterion and more. First time reading? Join other risk-takers, entrepreneurs, traders, investors, data geeks and alpha types. Sign up for free here.
TGI Thursday! (5/8) America's economic prophets can seem like doomsday cultists—their end-of-the-world deadline keeps passing without apocalypse. Their "Godot Recession"—named for the character who never arrives—has become Wall Street's most expensive running joke. Now Trump's tariff tantrum has resurrected these recession fantasies. Polymarket odds of economic collapse spiked to 66% after "Liberation Day,” and have since dropped to 51%.
But once again, the priests of financial doom may need to reschedule the economic funeral. While the Fed continues to fear stagflation as regional business surveys show economic activity weakening faster than a politician's campaign promises, we're lowering our recession odds, as well. Why? Because both America and China are discovering economic warfare, like actual warfare, produces no winners—just varying degrees of losers.
While today's announced trade deal with the UK is a start, Trump needs to resolve this tariff nightmare before midterms, lest voters punish Republicans for emptying their 401(k)s. Meanwhile, court challenges to his "national emergency" tariff authority multiply faster than excuses at a congressional ethics hearing.
Consumer confidence remains at recessionary levels, but American wallets have proven more resilient than cockroaches in a nuclear winter. Don't be surprised if this recession, like its predecessors, stands us up yet again.
Sea Change: Are Shipping Stocks Dead in the Water?
Trump's tariffs have slashed shipping volume by a stunning 30%, leaving maritime giants Matson (MATX) and Zim Integrated Shipping (ZIM) floundering despite deceptively attractive valuations. These behemoths of global commerce—once untouchable leviathans—now find themselves adrift in a sea of canceled sailings and idle ships. Port of Los Angeles traffic has collapsed, with a 35% projected decline this week alone. Luckbox analyst-at-large Andrew Prochnow evaluates the opportunities.Read Full Story
Can Tariffs Accomplish What Tax Laws Couldn't?
Uncle Sam's checking account just got a historic cash infusion as Trump's tariff sledgehammer shatters decades of corporate shell games. Customs collections exploded to $17.4 billion in April—81% higher than in March and double the 2023-24 average. General Motors (GM), the ungrateful recipient of taxpayer-funded corporate welfare, now faces a $5 billion tariff tab it can't pass along to consumers after abandoning American factories faster than celebrities fled Twitter. Meanwhile, Apple's Irish tax haven looks increasingly like a financial Potemkin village as manufacturing shifts stateside. While it’s too early to tell, the party may soon be over for corporations that gorged themselves on pandemic price-gouging while playing offshore musical chairs with their tax obligations. Read Full Story
90% of the world's goods are transported by sea.
— World Economic Forum
Ubiquiti's Hire Wire Act
Networking upstart Ubiquiti (UI) has quietly engineered a 200% stock explosion by selling affordable technology to the digital middle class. After falling from $425 to $275 and rebounding to $340, the stock is perched atop valuation metrics so obscene they'd make a venture capitalist blush. With a price-to-book ratio of 69.7 (compared to the sector's 3.1), the company must deliver strong quarterly numbers on May 9 or face capitalism's most ruthless correction—a violent return to financial reality. Read Full Story
How to Trade Options in 7924 Seconds
While CNBC parades its gaggle of shamans who predict market movements with the accuracy of astrologers reading goat entrails, three actual trading experts have assembled to deliver something revolutionary: genuine mathematical insight.
Tom Sosnoff—the godfather of retail options—dismantles Wall Street's predatory mythology with the precision of a surgeon removing a tumor. Options trader Jermal Chandler explains how capital efficiency and probability-based strategies can transform your portfolio from a prayer mat into a statistical machine. And Pete Mulmat—futures trading's Yoda minus the grammatical deficiencies—reveals how 23-hour markets give you advantages the average investor can't comprehend. Position sizing, implied volatility and mathematical principles aren't sexy until you realize they're the difference between retiring comfortably and living in your children's basement.
While financial television parades its "talking heads,” tastylive proudly showcases its "trading minds"—practitioners who actually risk capital instead of merely pontificating about it. This distinction is now going mobile as tastylive, the financial world's last bastion of unvarnished truth, embarks on a touring crusade across America and Europe—and you're invited to witness the spectacle. For those already battling in the derivatives trenches or merely voyeurs to the capitalist carnival, these free gatherings promise enlightenment without the usual Wall Street condescension.
Space is limited and RSVPs are required. Miss this, and you've voluntarily excluded yourself from what might be the only financially educational experience that’s not compromised by corporate genuflection—real trades, unfiltered commentary and the occasional shattering of economic orthodoxy.
Kelly's criterion isn't just another Wall Street buzz phrase—it's the cold, rational formula that determines precisely how much capital to risk without committing financial suicide. While the mediocre masses bleed money on gut feelings, the ruthless few who master this equation extract wealth with surgical precision. Don’t miss this important article. Read Full Story
Zero DTE Options: $1 Trillion Daily Obsession 💵
Zero-day options have morphed into the active investor's crack cocaine, growing five-fold in just three years to dominate over 50% of all SPX trading. The fascinating twist? Despite hysterical claims that these 0DTEs cause market volatility, data recently released from Cboe reveals the opposite. When markets imploded during April's tariff tantrum, retail traders fled while institutions stepped in to stabilize the chaos. Market maker hedging represented a microscopic 0.2% of S&P futures volume—hardly the tail wagging the dog. With over $1 trillion in notional value traded daily, this high-octane market has transformed investing. Ignore 0DTEs at your portfolio's peril. Read Cboe's report here.
BOOK VALUE
App-ocalypse Now: How Alex Karp Plans to Rescue Tech 📙
Alex Karp's new book, The Technological Republic, arrives as a rare intellectual contribution from Silicon Valley's power corridors—a philosophical treatise clothed in business casual attire. The Palantir CEO argues that tech has lost its way in the shopping mall of consumer capitalism. Between fascinating digressions on honeybee swarms and French cinema, Karp delivers his central thesis: While Silicon Valley perfects food delivery apps, civilization-level problems remain unsolved and America's adversaries advance.
Technology must pivot from "minor and trivial yet solvable inconveniences" to defending Western democracy.
Karp's Frankfurt School background shines through his analysis of how language has lost meaning in our postmodern landscape. His proposed solution—using software to create new systems of meaning—reflects both his intellectual journey and Palantir's mission. For all its eccentricity, this book offers a provocative thesis on technology's higher purpose from someone uniquely positioned at the intersection of philosophy, power and potential.
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Luckbox Magazine is a product and service offered by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”). Luckbox Magazine content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involves risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. The information provided in Luckbox Magazine may not be appropriate for all individuals, and is provided without respect to any individual’s financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Transaction costs (commissions and other fees) are important factors and should be considered when evaluating any securities, futures, or digital asset transaction or trade. For simplicity, the examples and illustrations in these articles may not include transaction costs. Nothing contained in this magazine constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, promotion or offer by Luckbox Magazine or tastylive, Inc., or any of its subsidiaries, affiliates or assigns. While Luckbox Magazine and tastylive believe that the information contained in Luckbox Magazine is reliable and make efforts to assure its accuracy, the publisher disclaims responsibility for opinions and representation of facts contained therein. Active investing is not easy, so be careful!
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Sea Change: Are Shipping Stocks Dead in the Water?
