TGIT: Nintendo, Rolls-Royce, Victoria's Secret and Other Stories

Switch 2 debut, tariff ballyhoo, Rolls-Royce renew, dollar askew, lingerie, lab leaks, motorsports and more. First time reading? Join other risk-takers, entrepreneurs, traders, investors, data geeks and alpha types. Sign up for free here.

Thank goodness it's Thursday! (4/24) In a just-in-time display of negotiating acumen (fatigue?), President Trump recalibrated (capitulated?) his economic strategy this week.  

Trump shelved his threats against Jerome Powell, abruptly declaring he has "no intention" of firing the Federal Reserve chair after days of public hostility. The sudden reversal comes after markets recoiled at his previous saber-rattling threats to end the central bank's independence. 

Meanwhile, Trump's China tariff bluster got a hasty rewrite. After campaigning on apocalyptic 145% duties, he now says they'll "come down substantially, but it won't be zero." Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed this retreat at a JPMorgan conference, admitting the obvious truth that "No one thinks the current status quo is sustainable." Anonymous sources suggest the administration might settle around 60%. 

The markets, those short-term voting machines of American economic policy, celebrated this governmental backpedaling. The dollar strengthened 2% while stocks jumped higher. So, the economic strongman campaign persona meets actual governance reality yet again. Whether this represents strategic negotiation or chaotic improvisation remains anyone's guess, but the Street clearly prefers Trump's retreat to his rhetoric. The cards are on the table, and Beijing is watching carefully. 

Stay lucky! 

Letter to Editor

Nintendo (NTDOY) stands at the precipice of what could be gaming's most consequential product launch this decade—pre-orders went live today for the Switch 2, but closed after the console sold out within a couple of hours. The company’s stock's has surged 50% over the past year, but Wall Street faces a brutal reality check: The $450 consoles could cost consumers $550 under restored tariff regimes. A stockpile of 1.7 million units should help the company weather the immediate storm, but what happens when that inventory evaporates? With a bloated P/E ratio of 41.8 (more than double the industry median), Nintendo's premium valuation teeters on the edge of tariff-induced devastation. So, jump in now or wait for a tariff-triggered pullback? Luckbox analyst-at-large Andrew Prochnow examines your options. Read Full Story

In 2022, almost 95% of Nintendo's revenue came from the Switch platform.

—  Strategic Management Insight

CEO Tufan Erginbilgic's ruthless corporate surgery has transformed Rolls-Royce (RYCEY) from a wheezing giant into a lean profit machine and sent shares skyrocketing 30% in 2025. The stock that nearly flatlined at $2 now commands $10 per share and a hefty premium valuation. But has the market's love affair with the company become a blind infatuation? Or is this Act One of another capitalism comeback story? With Europe's defense spending ready to explode, the future looks bright for this firm that now specializes in aerospace and nuclear power. Read Full Story

Beijing's statistical magicians have pulled another rabbit from their hat with China’s gross domestic product now mysteriously beating forecasts at 5.4%. Look closer and you'll find manufacturers frantically stockpiling inventory ahead of Trump's 145% tariff sledgehammer. This isn't strength—it's last-gasp panic. Chinese consumers clearly aren't buying the propaganda and are stashing cash at rates unseen since 2008's financial bloodbath. When the inventory bubble pops, will China's fragile economic façade crumble? Ilya Spivak, tastylive head of global macro, has some answers. Read Full Story

When consumers can't afford Gucci bags, they splurge on lace bralettes instead—call it the quantifiable "lipstick effect.” It’s where consumers do without $2,000 handbags but still make $50 purchases of small luxuries like lipstick, perfume, skincare products and lingerie. Victoria's Secret (VSCO) long ago positioned itself as a premium brand (luxury identity, mainstream pricing), and that helps it keep customers shopping during recessions. Comparative performance metrics suggest the chain could maintain relative stability when the next inevitable economic contraction arrives and wallets thin. Read Full Story

Welcome to the casino economy of 2025, where a staggering 4% of trading days now feature price swings exceeding 5%—volatility not witnessed since the pandemic's economic waterboarding in 2020. These spasmodic seizures are exposing the fragility beneath Wall Street's veneer of confidence. Uncertainty isn't just present—it's mainlining directly into asset prices. This week's Cherry Picks from Mike Rechenthin and Nick Battista dish up the data along with two new trade ideas. Read Full Story

Dollar Dominance Death Spiral? 💀

The once-mighty greenback has plummeted nearly 10% against major currencies, setting 2025 on pace for the dollar's worst performance since 2017. What's genuinely baffling for Wall Street's old guard is how this collapse defies patterns that have persisted since Nixon severed gold's tether in 1973. The real shocker? Neither rising Treasury yields nor market panic are rescuing the currency. This isn't mere volatility—it's potential regime change as foreign capital flees dollar-denominated assets. It suggests Trump's aggressive tariff policies may have fatally wounded American financial hegemony. The Trade? When rebounds occur—and they will—smart money will sell them. Read Full Story

Long Trunks Have a Long Tail 🎂

YouTube, the world’s second most-visited site after Google Search, turned 20 yesterday. What began with a grainy elephant video featuring one of the three founders was purchased by Google less than two years later for $165 billion. By now it’s a half-trillion-dollar behemoth poised to outgrow Disney. Yes, it threatens traditional media while still managing to fend off an onslaught by TikTok. But regulatory clouds are gathering—a federal judge's recent monopoly ruling suggests Google, now called Alphabet (GOOG), might face the ultimate punishment: surrendering its video cash cow. Read Full Story

The smoking gun of COVID's origin is aimed directly at Wuhan's laboratory, where scientists were manipulating precisely the right viral sequences at precisely the wrong biosafety level. Unlike natural outbreaks that sputter before spreading, this virus arrived perfectly engineered for human transmission. Meanwhile, environmental pontificators blamed deforestation while ignoring the statistical reality: China's forest coverage has actually increased to 25%. After examining 40,000 Chinese markets, not a single infected animal emerged. The truth isn't green—it's sterile white and wrapped in a lab coat. Read Full Story

YouTube Daredevil Turned  Motorsports Streaming Mogul 🏎️

Our favorite read this week is the entrepreneurial story of Garrett Mitchell (aka Cleetus McFarland) who dropped $2.2 million on an abandoned Florida racetrack in 2019. Then COVID hit. Faced with lockdowns and no revenue, Mitchell pivoted to pay-per-view events that crashed his servers with 75,000 concurrent viewers.

Fast forward to 2025, and FRDM+ has become the Netflix of grassroots motorsports with apps on major platforms, 21 live events scheduled this year, and profitability that mainstream streaming giants would kill for. All this from a guy whose early claim to fame included videos like "BLEW BY A COP AT 120+mph! OOPS!" Read Full Story

More Cowbell

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View the northern lights on a budget. 

ICYMI: Last week’s Luckbox TGIT.

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