TGIT: Winners, Losers and How the Markets Are Voting

Kalshi, crypto, DJT, First Solar, Palantir, META, NATO, broken wing butterflies, Tequila, the Grammys and much more. First time reading? Join other risk-takers, entrepreneurs, traders, investors, data geeks and alpha types. Sign up for free here.

TGI Thursday! And that the election is over.

Donald Trump secured a decisive victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, winning in both the popular vote and Electoral College by significant margins. According to exit polling by Edison Research, Trump’s increase in share of votes across key demographics played a decisive role:

• While Harris won 53% of women voters, Trump won 45%—up 3% from his performance in a 2020 exit poll.

• Trump won 46% of Hispanic voters to 52% for Harris—up 14% from 2020.

• Harris won 77% of Black men, while Trump won 21%—up 2% from 2020.

• Trump won 55% of Hispanic men, compared to 43% for Harris—up 19% from 2020.
• Trump won 43% of voters ages 18-29, while Harris won 54%. Trump's share was up 7% in 2020.

Some 46% of voters said their family financial situation was worse than it was four years ago, compared to 20% who said so in Edison Research's 2020 exit poll.

While the markets responded immediately to the outcome of the election with broad gains across the board for stocks and crypto, calm has set in today as voters and investors sit back to consider the impact on the world, the markets and their pockets.

We’ve done the same, and here’s our quick take on the election’s winners, and losers.

Winners:

• Donald Trump: Secured a historic comeback victory despite impeachments and criminal cases, cementing his legacy as a transformative political figure.

• JD Vance: The 40-year-old senator overcame criticism to become vice president-elect and Trump's heir apparent.

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: Switched from Democrat to independent to Trump Republican, gaining recognition and likely a position in Trump administration.

• Republicans: Secured the Senate majority through victories in West Virginia, Ohio and Montana, with potential for more seats in undecided races, and possibly the House.

• Josh Shapiro: Pennsylvania governor's stock rose after the Harris defeat, making him a potential 2028 Democratic nominee from a crucial swing state.

• Joe Rogan: Podcaster's influence grew after landing major Trump interview and endorsing the former president, symbolizing the shift from traditional to new media.

• Kalshi: Prediction markets proved decidedly more accurate than the pollsters.

• Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel): Expecting stronger U.S. support for Israel's military actions and U.S. opposition to a Palestinian state.

• Giorgia Meloni (Italy): Well-positioned as bridge between NATO/EU and Trump through the Musk connection, which could maintain Western unity.

Losers:

• Kamala Harris: Lost to Trump by a significant margin, becoming the only Democrat he’s beaten in the popular vote. Her future political prospects appear uncertain.

• Joe Biden: Forced to abandon his reelection bid after a poor debate performance and gaffes late in the Harris campaign.

• Democrats: Suffered broad defeats in the presidential and Congressional races, losing Senate seats and facing potential GOP control of House.

• Jack Smith: Special counsel's Trump prosecutions appear likely to be terminated when Trump takes office.

• Chuck Schumer: Lost position as majority leader when the Democrats lost control of the Senate after failing to maintain blue seats or flip Republican targets.

• Pollsters: Significantly underestimated Trump's performance in swing states, including a major miss in Iowa where one prediction was off by double digits.

• Allan Lichtman: The so-called Nostradamus who predicted a Harris win suffered a loss in credibility amid questions of partisanship.

• Volodymyr Zelenskiy (Ukraine): Faces anxiety over a possible reduction in U.S. military support and U.S. pressure to cede territory to Russia.

One more winner worth mentioning: Luckbox readers beat the pollsters by correctly predicting the Trump vs. Harris outcome (60% to 39%) in our reader survey.

It's time to get lucky.

Editorial Director

Stock in Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) didn’t ride the president-elect’s coattails to victory in this week’s election. In fact, volatility collapsed in shares in DJT, leaving hordes of options buyers with heavy losses. With the lines redrawn in the options market, here’s what investors can expect next. Read Full Story

We review America’s financial commitments abroad in light of Trump's stance on NATO, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the chance his “America First” priorities may reduce commitments to other countries while championing domestic interests. Read Full Story

$21.9 trillion — how much the U.S. has contributed to NATO in the last 75 years.

— Newsweek

The cryptocurrency industry emerged as a decisive force in the 2024 election, spending over $135 million to support pro-crypto candidates across party lines. The investment paid off dramatically, with 253 crypto-friendly candidates winning House seats and 16 securing Senate victories. Notable wins included Bernie Moreno's defeat of crypto-skeptic Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio. President-elect Trump, who once called Bitcoin a "scam," pivoted to embrace the industry, promising to make the U.S. the ”crypto capital of the planet."

Bitcoin is up 10% post-election, and the crypto community’s response to Trump’s victory ranges from calls to free Ross Ulbricht to firing Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler,— if he doesn’t resign first.

Ryan Grace, the global head of digital assets at tastycrypto, sums it up this way: “A GOP administration and Congress likely means accelerated progress toward regulatory clarity, which is huge because a lack of regulations has been the single biggest impediment to the growth of crypto and blockchain technology in the U.S.”

With shares in panel-maker First Solar (FSLR) down 10%, an unusually good buying opportunity may be emerging. After all, there’s strong demand for the company’s products and a backlog of orders. But could a Republican emphasis on fossil fuels put the company at risk? Read Full Story

A combination of Palantir’s (PLTR) strong third-quarter earnings and the Trump post-election rally propelled the company’s stock 25 points upward in the past few days. Its unorthodox CEO, Alex Karp, celebrated the success, attributing it to surging demand for AI, particularly in the U.S. market, where the company’s revenue grew 44% year over year. 

"We absolutely eviscerated this quarter," declared Karp, who emphasized the U.S.-driven AI revolution and predicted a world divided between "AI haves and have-nots." He also addressed skeptics of his unconventional leadership style, noting a shift in perception. The data analytics company, which provides AI tools to government, military and commercial clients, saw strong growth in its core U.S. business while warning that Europe risks falling behind in AI innovation. 

On today’s installment of Options Trades Today, Tony Battista discusses a trading opportunity in Meta Platforms (META). The stock is up $18.39 with a 72% correlation to the overall market. He shares a diagonal spread strategy with defined risk, aiming to benefit from an expansion of volatility in January after it collapses in December. Watch the video.

Nick Battista's newest episode of Life Cycle of a Trade focuses on the broken wing butterfly, an omni-directional strategy with some interesting possibilities for managing the trade. Check out the tastylive program to see how the trade was managed into earnings, turning it into a "risk free" butterfly with a chance of added profits. 

We Predicted Prediction Markets 🔮

We really did! For the past five years, Luckbox has not only been covering prediction markets but also advocating for them. Meanwhile, our Prediction Trade videocast has been active for more than three election cycles. So, we’re thrilled to have a front row seat for the meteoric rise of Kalshi, the prediction marketplace of choice for U.S. traders. (During the election frenzy, it even beat Pornhub in Google search rankings.) After his big night, we checked in with Tarek Mansour, Kalshi co-founder and CEO, for a post-election post-mortem on how the platform fared. 

On election eve, more than 138,000 traders placed in excess of 333,000 trades on the platform. Nearly 58,000 new traders joined Kalshi on Nov. 5 alone, contributing to more than $900 million in trading volume. The platform hosted 614 different election betting options. 

As to what comes next, expect to see new Cabinet appointment political markets launched in the coming days. “We're excited about future political markets ... Cabinet, speaker of the House, international elections,” Mansour told Luckbox. Another new market will address the question of whether Trump will raise tariffs. An established market on quarterly Federal Reserve markets consistently draw millions in trading volume. And markets on extreme weather events provide critical hedging utility.

Now That You're Betting on Elections 🎶

The Rockhound forecasts the four major Grammy categories that prediction market traders can bet on via Kalshi—Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Album of the Year and Best New Artist. She even includes her top two picks in each category. The Recording Academy is scheduled to announce the nominations tomorrow. Read Full Story

Bourbon and Coffee Meet Tequila 🌵 

Whether you’re celebrating democracy or eulogizing it, tequila can help. Master distiller Iliana Partida crafts Quintaleza Double Barrel Reposado Tequila by aging his gem in bourbon barrels before finishing it in coffee barrels to create an unusual bronze-hued spirit that drinks like an añejo. 

The nose is a pleasant journey through raw honey, dry hay and sophisticated notes of leather. But it's the palate where this tequila really shines—waves of cooked agave sweetness dance with tobacco and barrel spices before a peppery crescendo. The finale? A masterful blend of subtle chocolate, coffee and lingering sweetness that’s perfect for drinking neat or in smoky margaritas, tequila old fashioneds or expresso martinis. ($79) 

More Cowbell

Bitcoin's seasonality and the November Effect.

Will the GOP sweep? Track the House vote here.

Wall Street expects Trump to unlock deal-making.

Farmers supported Trump but fear tariffs.

Forget the rumors, Jamie Dimon is staying put at JPM. 

The Singularity Watch: A robot smiles with living skin.

Five shows, five cities, five days: Tom in UK/Ireland.

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