TGIT: Trump Trolling, Oh Canada! the Ozempic Effect and Other Stories

RFK-J, the FDA, GLP-1, food stocks, MicroStrategy, AppLovin, Palantir, call for reader forecasts and more. Join other risk-takers. First time reading? Join other risk-takers, entrepreneurs, traders, investors, data geeks and alpha types. Sign up for free here.

TGI Thursday! (12/19) It’s been a long week for active investors with yesterday's close marking the Dow's longest losing streak since 1974—10 straight days. In what should have been no surprise, the Federal Reserve is forecasting only two interest rate cuts in 2025, not the previously projected four. That’s because lingering inflation is expected to remain above its target range longer than expected. Coinciding with yesterday's selloff, the VIX skyrocketed 70% in its most dramatic single-day surge since 2019. The bottom line: Expect interest rates to remain higher for longer.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is also anxious for the weekend as his life in politics appears to be unraveling. His left-leaning government is teetering after his right-hand woman, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, delivered a resignation letter that read more like a political obituary. The catalyst? A dinner with Trump at Mar-a-Lago following the former president's threat of 25% tariffs on Canadian goods.

Freeland's departure marks the ninth cabinet resignation in 2024, leaving Trudeau as isolated as a Canadian during lockdown. His approval ratings have plummeted while housing costs soar and GDP per capita sinks. Even his attempt to woo voters with tax holidays and stimulus checks landed like a Canuck on thin ice—70% of Canadians dismissed it as electoral pandering.

That’s because Trudeau based his economic "stimulus" plan on a fundamental misunderstanding of basic economics: Borrowing $4.7 billion from future taxpayers to mail out one-time ($250) checks won't magically fix Canada's stagnant growth. Trudeau and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul must still be reading from Stephanie Kelton’s pooh-poohed playbook.

Truths from Trudeau's True North reveal a brutal story: A 23-point deficit in the polls, plummeting GDP and a third of young Canadians living with their parents. The man who once promised to welcome the world's refugees now watches as his open-door policy backfires, with population growth far outpacing increases in housing capacity. The Economist magazine concurs. Its recent analysis of Canada's economic descent notes that our neighbor, once proudly neck-and-neck with Montana, has now slid down the economic ladder to Alabama territory—just three rungs from the bottom of America's economic barrel. In a mere half-decade, Canada's per-capita income has plummeted from 80% to 70% of American levels.

Trump’s trolling of Trudeau aside, the fate of the Canadian prime minister is tenuous at the same time CEOs are expressing renewed optimism over Trump's reelection and prospects for the global economy. 

Now let’s get lucky. 

Editorial Director

Despite lobbying efforts, junk food manufacturers and fast food chains are dealing with a triumvirate of tormentors. Here's what’s happening with obesity drugs, the FDA and (MAHA's) RFK-J. Read Full Story

~12% of U.S. adults have used a GLP-1 drug.

—  Kaiser Family Foundation, May 2024

Prediction markets are forecasting a ~70% probability that RFK Jr. will be confirmed to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. Beyond banning Red Dye No. 3, that suggests major disruption ahead, affecting everything from food additives to weight-loss drugs. Our analyst reveals the food manufacturers and restaurants most exposed stocks to the changes. Read Full Story

Stock in AppLovin (APP) has skyrocketed 785% this year, outpacing the likes of Nvidia (NVDA) and MicroStrategy (MSTR). But a recent snub by the S&P 500 sent shares tumbling more than 20%. Is now the right time to invest in this digital advertising giant? Read Full Story

More than three years ago, we offered up MicroStrategy as a more accessible proxy for bitcoin. (Here, and here.) That’s when bitcoin was trading below $50,000 and MicroStrategy was in the low $70’s. Today, bitcoin is over $100,000, but shares in MicroStrategy are trading for a whopping $400.

Do we have your attention? Great. Then you’ll appreciate this recent interview with MicroStrategy’s executive chairman, Michael Saylor, on the future of bitcoin and MSTR. 

If you've watched the interview above, it's clear Michael Saylor isn't just playing 4D chess—he's rewriting the whole damn game. First, he turned MicroStrategy into a bitcoin-hoarding behemoth sitting on $46.5 billion in crypto. Now, he’s muscling his way into the Nasdaq 100.

Wall Street's about to get a masterclass in financial chaos theory and the mother of all feedback loops. When passive exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are forced to buy MicroStrategy stock, Saylor uses the cash to buy more bitcoin. That drives up his company's value, forcing funds to buy more ... you get the picture. Will this financial fever dream actually play out? Contributing Editor Garrett Baldwin believes it can. Read Full Story

Pay attention to Palantir Technologies. In late October, this letter ran a story with the headline, “Palantir—You Will Thank Us in Five Years,” along with a profile of the company’s one-of-a-kind CEO and co-founder, Alex Karp. The stock was trading around $43. Since then, Palantir continues to make waves. It’s one of three stocks chosen to make its first appearance on the Nasdaq 100 as part of its annual reconstitution before the market opens on Dec. 23. Also, Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel has strong ties both to President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance. And there are good reasons to expect Elon and Vivek’s DOGE and other government agencies will champion Palantir’s software. Palantir stock is now trading in the $70's.

For the past 10 years, the tastylive network has shared the inspiring stories of self-directed traders and investors who’ve built their success on “tasty mechanics.” These “Rising Stars” have ranged from homemakers to homebuilders, from students to senior citizens, and from high school dropouts to PhDs. More than 60 have shared their trading journeys in video interviews with options trading legend Tom Sosnoff, netting more than 3.3 million views on YouTube. 

The most recent Rising Star saga, entitled “How 0DTE Turned This Uber Driver into a Millionaire,” is the story of Mark Anderson. By his mid-20’s, he became a skillful enough trader to make investing his full-time career. His account of coming of age in the markets has attracted more than 180,000 views since its debut last month. 

If you’d like to be considered for the ranks of the “rising stars,” send an email describing your trading adventure here. Be sure to explain the role of tasty mechanics in your trading and let us know why you’d like to share your story. 

To quantify the "sweet spot" for implied volatility (IV), the authors of Cherry Picks examined six years of implied volatility data on the major markets (SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM) and studied five of the biggest, most liquid stocks in the world. Now, they’re sharing what they learned about the range (high/low) of expected moves and how much these stocks stayed within it. Read Full Story

Forecast the S&P: $5,000 in Prizes 🤔

Consult your inner Luckbox and tell us where you think the S&P 500 is going to close at the end of each quarter in 2025. If you’re right, you win! See contest rules and the entry form here.

Or, Win Prizes Without Being Right 🏆

As the new year approaches, we’re preparing our annual Issue with Forecasting. It’s your opportunity to see your very own predictions on financial, political and cultural events alongside the projections of our panel of expert prognosticators! Complete the entire survey, and you may win a Luckbox T-shirt just for participating. We’ll also publish selected reader forecasts of "outlier events.” Take our favorite reader survey of the year here.

More Cowbell

Subscribe to watch live “After the Bell" insights here. 

Why Nate Silver wants to save daylight saving time. 

Paypal Mafia’s David Sacks: Trump’s crypto and AI czar. 

Javier Milei is Argentina’s man for the moment. 

Biden scores vs. "junk fees" as the clock winds down. 

41% of young voters find UHC CEO killing "acceptable". 

Why a Lions superfan was banned from NFL stadiums.

Our annual forecasting survey needs your predictions! 

Share the Luckbox—forward to a friend.
Subscribe for free here.

Now go on, get lucky.

Luckbox Magazine is a product and service offered by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”). Luckbox Magazine content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involves risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. The information provided in Luckbox Magazine may not be appropriate for all individuals, and is provided without respect to any individual’s financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Transaction costs (commissions and other fees) are important factors and should be considered when evaluating any securities, futures, or digital asset transaction or trade. For simplicity, the examples and illustrations in these articles may not include transaction costs. Nothing contained in this magazine constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, promotion or offer by Luckbox Magazine or tastylive, Inc., or any of its subsidiaries, affiliates or assigns. While Luckbox Magazine and tastylive believe that the information contained in Luckbox Magazine is reliable and make efforts to assure its accuracy, the publisher disclaims responsibility for opinions and representation of facts contained therein. Active investing is not easy, so be careful!