TGIT: Trump Pump Dump, 12 Steps and 7 New Trades

Oil's head fake, the 12-day war take, an under-the-radar AI stock, an air lock, ZEBRAs, brain rot, the SPAC is back and more. First time reading? Join other risk-takers, entrepreneurs, traders, investors, data geeks and alpha types. Sign up for free here.

TGI Thursday! (6.26) Crude oil prices collapsed 6% this week as markets celebrated an Israel-Iran ceasefire that nearly imploded before breakfast. Crude has settled around $65, erasing weeks of geopolitical premium in a few sessions — basically 12 days of Middle Eastern theater undone faster than it accumulated.

Trump's diplomatic masterstroke? Declaring China can keep buying discounted Iranian crude while hoping it will still buy premium American oil. It's the equivalent of Netflix telling subscribers they can keep their free trial while suggesting they upgrade to premium.

The Strait of Hormuz — the conduit for 20% of the world’s oil —remains open, deflating traders' fear of supply disruption. Markets had priced in catastrophe; instead, they got a missile strike on an empty Qatar airbase and stern presidential tweets.

Oil has returned to pre-conflict levels and at this writing, the S&P 500 is on the verge of reaching new record highs, suggesting investors never truly believed either side wanted economic suicide. Iran produces 3.3 million barrels daily, and shutting the strait would have hurt it more than anyone else. Sometimes, the most rational outcome is also the most boring — and profitable for those who bet against hysteria.

It's Trump's market now — we're just trading in it.

Stay lucky!

Letter to Editor

Crude oil markets just experienced the equivalent of a sugar crash after binging on geopolitical hysteria. Crude bounced off $63.50 as traders remembered that actual supply and demand still matter more than headlines. The EIA delivered a reality check: Stockpiles hit the lowest seasonal levels since 2014 while demand for gasoline surged to post-2021 highs. Fear premiums evaporate quickly, but empty storage tanks create lasting price floors. Read Full Story

While traders panicked over Middle East headlines, Errol Coleman sold fear itself — literally. The USO July $94 call was pricing oil at levels not seen since 2022 despite zero actual supply disruption. Geopolitical theater inflated options premiums beyond all reasonable bounds. Five days later, reality caught up and Coleman collected $1.34 per contract as volatility collapsed. Markets love pricing catastrophe that never actually arrives. Sometimes the best trade is simply betting against collective hysteria with structured precision. Read Full Story

The Defense Sector's 12-Day Payday  

While diplomats debated and oil traders panicked, America's defense contractors quietly tallied the receipts from 12 days of precision violence. Boeing's (BA) 30,000-pound bunker busters finally saw combat after two decades of development costs. Northrop Grumman's (NOC) B-2 bombers justified their astronomical price tags. Raytheon's (RTX) Tomahawks rained down at a cost of millions per missile. Every explosion represented decades of R&D, congressional appropriations and shareholder returns. War may be politics by other means, but it's also business by the most profitable methods available. Read Full Story

While defense stocks make headlines about missiles and mayhem, VSE (VSEC) has quietly reinvented itself as an aviation aftermarket specialist — the unglamorous work of keeping planes airborne. This Virginia-based company focused on maintenance and parts distribution has seen shares soar 50% as geopolitical chaos drives demand. Sometimes the best defense plays hide in plain sight.
Read Full Story

While everyone chases Nvidia's glory, Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO) is building the invisible highways vital to moving all that precious data around. This American-Taiwanese chipmaker crafts the controllers that keep AI workloads from choking on their own ambition — yet its shares trade like yesterday's commodity play. Consider its strong margins, $332 million in cash and analyst targets near $90. Data pipes beat data hype. Read Full Story

The 400% ThredUp (TDUP) stock surge isn't just another meme rally. It's what happens when regulatory reality collides with fast-fashion fantasy. While Shein and Temu scramble to explain why $3 shirts now cost $8 thanks to tariff changes, this US-based resale platform is quietly building the logistics backbone that makes secondhand scale. Sometimes the boring infrastructure play beats the shiny disruption story. Read Full Story

Most options education is theoretical garbage that crumbles the moment volatility spikes. Mike Butler, from the megapopular Mike and His Whiteboard series, Nick Battista and Katie McGarrigle skip the textbook nonsense and show you how to manage positions when markets turn against you. Their 12 concrete steps help you manipulate strikes, roll disasters into recoveries and transform losing trades through systematic defense tactics. Watch the video here.

Zebra trades — zero extrinsic back ratios — can help you capture stock movement on a budget. You only need a fraction of the usual buying power if you use strategic call combinations. They’re long calls paired with short calls to create synthetic delta exposure while ditching the premium decay that kills most options strategies. It’s perfect for capital-constrained investors who want leveraged exposure without the typical options bloodbath. Defined risk, maximum efficiency, minimum nonsense. Nick Battista breaks it down here.

Solar stocks cratered 44% when Congress threatened to end tax credits — as though subsidies were the only thing convincing rich people to buy $28,000 backup power systems. Here's the thing: Even with 30% off, most homeowners still can't afford these luxury installations. The credits help wealthy early adopters feel better, but they don’t democratize adoption. Plus, commercial demand keeps growing regardless. When markets panic over policy changes that barely affect underlying fundamentals, contrarian opportunities emerge, according to Tom Preston, tastylive market strategist and Cherry Bomb author. Read Full Story

Move Over Meme Stocks —
SPACs Are Back! 

Remember 2021's SPAC mania? Shaq, A-Rod and a New Jersey deli were somehow worth $100 million? Those "blank check" disasters crashed 80% but generated massive fees. Goldman just ended its SPAC ban after private equity got stuck with $1.8 trillion in unsold companies. So now, the players in private equity need retail suckers to buy their inventory. Trump's deregulation makes it possible, and Eric Salzman at Matt Taibbi's Racket News explains why this rerun will end badly.
Read Full Story

Tech Titans Brag About Brain Rot  

The author of our favorite read of the week laments that YouTube Shorts have achieved 200 billion daily views — that's 80 per human on Earth, including newborns. Tech executives celebrate this manufactured addiction like crack dealers bragging about market share. The same minds that could have built tools to cultivate human potential have instead engineered algorithmic brain rot for quarterly gains. Alberto Romero's furious takedown exposes Silicon Valley's greatest moral failure: Turning human attention into digital heroin while pretending it's progress. Read Full Story

More Cowbell

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Roubini: Iran is headed toward regime collapse. 

USA Facts inventories the US nuke stockpile.

"Daddy" talk and the Trump-Rutte bromance.

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Cherry Picks shares three new trade ideas.

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