TGIT: Trading Trump's Energy Agenda (and Other Stories)

Big Dow energy, $50 oil, a nat gas play, VIX picks, The Trade Desk, a crude iron condor, 5 more trade ideas, another new Rising Star, and more. First time reading? Join other risk-takers, entrepreneurs, traders, investors, data geeks and alpha types. Sign up for free here.

TGI Thursday! (3/20) Executives who collectively contributed $75 million to Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign gathered yesterday at the White house for an oil summit amid a tumbling energy market. Since the inauguration, crude prices have plummeted from $78 to $67—a 15% drop. It’s benefiting consumers at the gas pump, where prices are 39 cents lower than last year.

Oil’s price stability, despite tough talk on Canadian and Mexican tariffs, reveals Trump's strategic approach—using bold threats as leverage while maintaining market equilibrium. However, his "drill, baby, drill" mantra has given rise to tension between the administration and industry leaders who prefer higher prices.

"There was really no discussion on price," Interior Secretary Doug Burgum noted, emphasizing it's "set by supply and demand." Instead, industry leaders pushed for streamlined approvals, with Burgum decrying regulations designed to "drive their business out of business."

But fracking executive Harold Hamm warned that at "$50 oil, you're below the point where you're going to 'drill, baby, drill.” That directly contradicts Trump adviser Peter Navarro, who stated lowering oil to $50 would "shave off a percentage point off the inflation rate."

This issue of Luckbox TGIT is dedicated to examining the state of the energy complex and offers up several timely trade ideas.

Stay lucky!

[Editor's note: Thank you for the comments, criticism and suggestions you send us each week. If you would like to see us cover a particular topic in an upcoming issue, use the Editorial Director link immediately below.]

Editorial Director

Crude oil's slide down a slippery slope continues as crude prices dance perilously near the $70 mark, tumbling almost 20% since January. OPEC's surprise move to unleash spare capacity starting in April has traders bracing for impact. Meanwhile, economic storm clouds gather—the Atlanta Fed forecasts negative 1.8% growth for Q1 2025, exacerbated by the Trump administration's government job cuts and tariff threats. The geopolitical chess match shows signs of détente, with Ukraine and Russia agreeing to spare energy infrastructure. For savvy investors, these downside risks create a volatile playground with plenty of opportunity. Read Full Story

Gas Up, Oil Down:

NFG's Market Defying Success

While oil prices tumbled from $80 to a lackluster $65 per barrel, natural gas staged a spectacular rally—and National Fuel Gas (NFG) is cashing in on this market schism with brutal efficiency. The company's stock has surged 25% this year alone and a staggering 50% over 52 weeks, yet it still trades at a P/E ratio of just 15—well below the sector's bloated 20. With strong performance across its operations and a promising outlook, NFG is positioning itself to deliver long-term value as a standout energy stock. Read Full Story

In a confident move that screams "we'll buy it one way or another," Chevron (CVX) just scooped up 4.99% of Hess (HES) shares at $145 a pop—well below the $171 per share they've promised in their stalled $53 billion acquisition. Why the bargain hunting? Their takeover has been trapped in legal limbo since October 2023, thanks to the obstructionist Exxon Mobil (XOM) claim to have first dibs on Hess's stake in Guyana's obscenely productive oil fields, which Exxon operates. The arbitration showdown happens this May in Paris, with a verdict expected three months later. If Exxon wins, Chevron's entire acquisition could collapse like a house of cards.

Meanwhile, Chevron keeps buying while the price is nice, and Wall Street remains bullish with 11 out of 14 analysts slapping "Buy" ratings on CVX stock.

Amid geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty, savvy traders are eyeing opportunities in crude oil. The market for oil stands at a crossroads today with Russia halting Ukrainian energy infrastructure attacks, new U.S. tariffs stoking fear of recession, and talk at yesterday’s Fed meeting of higher inflation and slower growth. Trader Errol Coleman reveals how he plans to capitalize on potential oil price rebounds by using the innovative ZEBRA (zero extrinsic back ratio) strategy on $USO—a method that provides synthetic stock exposure without time decay risk. Read Full Story

The S&P 500 just suffered its worst beating in months, and the fear gauge barely broke a sweat. This is unprecedented: The VIX peaked at just 28—the lowest panic reading ever for a correction of this magnitude. Normally when stocks take a 10% nosedive, traders line up for the exits. But this time? Nothing. No capitulation. No screaming CNBC hosts. What does this eerie calm tell us about what comes next? Read Full Story

The Trade Desk (TTD), once advertising's golden child, has taken a nosedive of biblical proportions, plummeting 60% after missing earnings by a measly $15 million. But here's where it gets interesting: The carnage aside, this digital advertising powerhouse still achieves 95% client retention and $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA. With a management team scrambling to reorganize and analysts maintaining "buy" ratings, could this bloodbath actually be an opportunity? Read Full Story

Dr. Data and Nick Battista note in their latest Cherry Picks newsletter that the volatility index (VIX) has performed a curious vanishing act at the front end. Traders who were bracing for short-term chaos have suddenly decided to chill. But don't be fooled! While the curve flattens like a pancake, overall volatility remains stubbornly elevated compared to historical averages. Meanwhile, small caps and the Nasdaq are getting hammered, with consumer discretionary taking the worst beating of all sectors. For those seeking shelter, energy stocks present an intriguing puzzle: Not all XLE components dance to oil's tune as you might expect. Read Full Story

In Nick Battista's most recent chapter of the Life Cycle of a Trade, he shares his methodology for achieving flexibility in position sizing with oil futures exceeding $60,000 in notional value. The deeply liquid oil futures options market offers sweet liberation from mundane equity options positions. Behold the iron condor in /CL—a capital-efficient structure exploiting SPAN margin's higher leverage! It's like controlling an oil tanker with a joystick instead of staffing the entire engine room. Watch the episode here.

Meet Derek Mullen, tastylive's newest Rising Star. The Ireland-based trader has demonstrated remarkable persistence, recovering from losing 70% in the 2008 crash to managing over $10 million today. Starting with just $25,000 in 2020, he embraced tastytlive’s options strategies, focusing on strangles with 16-20 delta and 45-day expirations. His story and video are here.

In this scathing analysis, the National Center for Energy Analytics exposes how the International Energy Agency has abandoned its mission as an objective analyst to become a cheerleader for energy transition. Once the gold standard for energy forecasting, the IEA now peddles improbable scenarios masquerading as inevitable outcomes. Peak oil demand by 2030? Pure fantasy built on 23 flawed assumptions, from magical EV adoption rates to Chinese compliance with climate pledges that contradict their actions. Meanwhile, 3 billion people in developing nations hunger for the energy prosperity we take for granted. The conclusion? The potential growth in oil demand is staggering. Read Full Story

Richard Haass, president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, makes the case that the much-ballyhooed "energy transition" is about as real as finding affordable housing in Manhattan. Fossil fuels still supply over 80% of global energy, with oil and gas consumption up 14% since 2013. Meanwhile, Europe's green crusade has accomplished precisely two things: Anemic economic growth and dependence on Russian gas. Haas argues that we need isn't some fantasy transition—it's "energy coexistence." Fossil fuels and renewables, both growing together. An inconvenient truth for climate purists, but hey—reality's a bitch. Read Full Story

Trump's AI and crypto czar, David Sacks, is putting American dominance on a high-stakes collision course with reality. Since his December appointment, Sacks has systematically gutted Biden's "burdensome regulations" and dismissed safety concerns as distractions. He says the regs let China gain advantage and made us increasingly paranoid about competitors like DeepSeek potentially outpacing American models. His part-time role (capped at 130 days yearly) raises questions about accountability and safety as he pushes an agenda where American technological supremacy trumps everything. Read Full Story

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