TGIT: Tim Waltz and JV Dance

Dancing VPs, crash and burn research, stock splits, brand breakups, AI small caps, SMCI, Chinese stocks, the Oasis reunion tour and more. First time reading? Join other risk-takers, entrepreneurs, traders, investors, data geeks and alpha types. Sign up for free here.

TGI Thursday! (10/3) It’s only the first week of October and surprises are rolling in. The Harris campaign is on the ropes with three looming crises: a potential Middle East meltdown, a port workers’ strike that could hit inflation-battered wallets, and the aftershocks of Hurricane Helene threatening to sway votes in a critical swing state. Trump’s newest plot twist comes courtesy of a 165-page thriller dropped by special counsel Jack Smith, thrusting his actions in the aftermath of the 2020 election back onto the front page. Somehow, these debacles didn’t make the CBS debate moderators’ list of questions for this week’s VP debate.

Politico’s snap poll called the VP debate a draw, but we think you know better. Our big election survey will close this weekend so there’s still time to give us your forecasts and feelings on November’s outcome. (And, the chance to be one of the randomly selected winners of a Luckbox T-shirt.) 

Back to the issue at hand, this week we focus on market-moving forensic reports published by Hindenburg Research. The short seller’s track record for wreaking havoc and halving the market caps of the publicly traded companies caught our attention. We also look at comebacks following stock splits (Super Micro Computers) and band splits (Oasis). 

Now, let’s get lucky! 

Editorial Director

Hindenburg publicizes a company’s questionable practices and thus forces down its share price. In 2022, the short seller’s 10 targets lost 42% of their value. Last year, its seven targets lost 36%. Just ask billionaires Carl Icahn and Gautam Adani. Or, Super Micro Computers (SMCI), one of Hindenburg's latest targets. Read Full Story

Since 2020, Hindenburg Research has targeted about 30 companies, leading to an average decline of 15% in their stock prices on the day following its reports.                — Bloomberg

What a wild ride! In March of this year, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) was valued at $70 billion, its stock having gained more than 5,000% in four years. But then came a whistleblower suit, a damning short seller's research report and a Department of Justice investigation. The company has since shed two-thirds of its value, and its shares split 10-1 this week. Is the stock setting up for the next leg up? Read Full Story

Early this week, China's stocks soared to their best day in 16 years. They were propelled by optimistic economic data and new measures to support the country’s struggling property market. The latter included reduced mortgage rates and reduced down payments. Those steps are meant to stabilize the sector amid declining home prices and a slowing economy. 

The changes also reflect the government's efforts to boost consumer confidence and spending. While some traders, like hedge fund manager and Carolina Panthers owner David Tepper, are bullish on China’s central bank’s recent stimulus, technical analysts like Tim Knight question whether Chinese equities are suddenly overvalued. 

What to do? The latest edition of Cherry Picks lists the best Chinese stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to trade. 

An August survey of 1,000 Nvidia employees revealed 76% are millionaires and one in three has a net worth of more than $20 million. (Sure, but can they work from home in their pajamas three days a week?) Unfortunately, many of us are late to the party because the company’s stock price has increased 10-fold over the past two years. That’s why it makes sense to explore our analyst's list of smaller-cap, below-the-radar AI-related companies whose names you’ve never heard. They may offer affordable ways to catch the next big wave.

A covered call simply means selling a short out-of-the-money call while holding 100 shares of the underlying security. But 100 shares can be capital intensive. A poor man’s covered call recreates similar P/L dynamics using an in-the-money long call in place of shares. But which (delta? expiration?) long call should you use? This video explains the trade. 

Is buying after a stock split a winning strategy? Amid an accounting scandal and an active DOJ inquiry, Super Micro Computer announced a 10-for-1 stock split this week. How do stocks perform following a stock split? And is it time to buy SMCI? Read Full Story

Will Britpop brothers Liam and Noel Gallagher acquiesce to a reunion tour without looking back in anger? Oasis' troubled past and two-decade feud feed into an exciting series of concerts. But with bands like Jane's Addition canceling reunion shows because of similar tensions, fans question whether they'll actually get to hear Wonderwall live. Maybe the money will keep their eyes on the prize because the Gallagher brothers are expected to make about $66.6 million each.

A Big Win for Political Punters 💰

After a legal tug-of-war, an appeals court has granted permission to the online prediction market Kalshi to offer betting markets on U.S. elections. The decision overturns a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ruling blocking betting on elections and other political outcomes. It’s a significant regulatory development in the debate over how financial markets should intersect with electoral forecasting and may reshape how political risk is traded and analyzed. Within an hour of the ruling, Kalshi posted markets on November’s House and Senate outcomes.

No, It’s Not Just About Pennsylvania🔮

Viewers of last week’s segment of The Prediction Trade on the tastylive network were treated to the insights of Robert Cahaly, a prominent pollster noted for predicting former President Trump’s win in 2016. In this special episode, Cahaly revealed the one state both Harris and Trump must win to secure the presidency. The surprise? It’s not the same state! 

13 Keys to the White House 🗝️

Historian Allan Jay Lichtman and Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok invented the Keys to the White House in 1981. Since then, Lichtman has used the model of 13 true-or-false questions to predict the winner of the next presidential election correctly almost every time since 1984. Luckbox interviewed Lichtman four years ago, and now he’ll be live on The Prediction Trade at 4:30 p.m. EDT (10/3 on tastylive) to reveal the details behind his Harris vs. Trump forecast. Beginning 10/4, you can replay the segment anytime on YouTube’s @tastyliveTrending channel.

More Cowbell

The pros & cons of stock splits and reverse splits. 
Bookmark this calendar of upcoming stock splits. 
The top 10 stocks to watch in October. 
This challenger to Nvidia just filed for its IPO. 
What to buy (and avoid) on Amazon's upcoming Prime Day. 

Money! Pink Floyd's $400 million payday. 
This year’s top 20 highest-paid NFL players. 
Nate Silver has a surprising take on the VP debate. 
Who do you think won the VP debate? Maybe win a Luckbox T-shirt. 

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