TGIT: Palantir — You Will Thank Us in Five Years

Palantir's prospects, Alex Karp's genius, Trump's trending, bitcoin's resistance, naked puts, Soccer Mommy, the Wilhelm scream and more. First time reading? Join other risk-takers, entrepreneurs, traders, investors, data geeks and alpha types. Sign up for free here.

TGI Thursday! (10.24) And thank goodness it's only eleven days until the election. More on that below.

Someday, you’re going to thank us for this issue. It’s our attempt to help you better understand Palantir Technologies, a company on the forefront of the revolution in artificial intelligence and the S&P 500’s newest member. Its proprietary Ontology has pretty much eliminated AI hallucinations, making large-language models safer and much more useful in commercial, government and military applications.

Like many active investors, we’ve been watching the enigmatic company for some time. Frankly, it's hard not to notice with the stock up nearly 160% so far this year. Alex Karp, the company’s charismatic co-founder and CEO, has been on a media tour lately, including an intriguing appearance on Real Time with Bill Maher. That interview, along with dozens of others and our study of shareholder letters, has convinced us Karp will soon take his place in the pantheon of tech titans alongside the likes of Steve Jobs, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Jensen Huang and Elon Musk.

On Sept. 23, Planatir was added to the S&P 500 as part of the index’s quarterly rebalancing. The following day, the company experienced a significant shift in its shareholder composition when director and co-founder Peter Thiel executed a major stock sale. Thiel divested more than 28.5 million shares worth more than $1 billion over the next few days, diminishing his ownership by approximately 30% to 70.8 million shares.

Since then, Palantir’s stock has appreciated by 17%. Was Thiel simply taking some money off the table? He still owns a massive stake, and financing presidential campaigns doesn’t come cheap. Or do his actions echo the valuation concerns of many analysts? The AI analytics company lays claim to the highest price-to-sales ratio in the S&P 500, currently trading at 39x sales. That’s even higher than Nvidia’s 35x sales.

And it’s one of the reasons why Palantir has become the focus of this week’s Luckbox. At the very minimum, we expect you’ll want to include Palantir on your watchlist of stocks. It’s a name you’ll hear a lot in the next decade.

Editorial Director

Move over Musk. Palantir CEO Alex Karp says and does as he pleases while working to save the world from "evil" by applying artificial intelligence to big data. Meanwhile, the man who describes himself as a freak and a rebel has amassed a personal fortune estimated at $4.7 billion. Read Full Story

Palantir Technologies has been riding the wave of AI enthusiasm and recently ascended to the S&P 500, but its soaring valuation has some investors scratching their heads. They can’t help but wonder whether the company's projected growth justifies the extremely high price of its stock. Our analyst provides insight into the price action ahead. Read Full Story

"Our customer count in the U.S. commercial market grew 83% year-over-year, from 161 to 295 in Q2/24.”

—  Palantir CEO Alex Karp, Letter to Shareholders (8/5/24) 

Shares in Palantir surged on news of its inclusion in the S&P 500. It looked like a classic case of the “index effect” that boosts stock prices before and after a company joins an index. But what does it really signal for the stock’s long-term price performance? Read Full Story

Get to know naked puts—a staple strategy for options traders. You execute them by writing or selling put options without holding a short position in the underlying security. And you can get started by checking out this latest episode of Nick Batista's Lifecycle of a Trade. He explains the mechanics of the opening order, including strike selection and duration, and shows you how to manage the position along the way.

When Bitcoin (BTC) reached the $67,000 mark earlier this week, 94% of its circulating supply was in profit because most of the coins were purchased around the $55,000 level. The profitability rate is its highest since may 2022.

Historical patterns show heavy resistance just above current levels, suggesting the crypto may be nearing a local price peak. That could be followed by a market correction or consolidation phase. On the other hand, the Bitcoin Exchange liquidation map at Coinglass identifies a potential $1.6 billion in short-covering liquidations that could occur if it successfully breaches $69,000. 

Palantir Technologies is named after a predictive crystal ball in J.R.R. Tolkien's epic fantasy The Lord of the Rings. Peter Jackson, who directed the movie versions of the LOTR books, is filming a prequel called The Hunt for Gollum for release in 2026. There’s a good probability the film will include the Wilhelm Scream. 

For more than 70 years, the Wilhelm scream has been legendary in the film industry. It’s a recording used repeatedly in almost any context. While most movies employ the scream sparingly, Jackson has included it in the Tolkien films more than half a dozen times and spread it throughout the series. 

The original Wilhelm scream made its debut as a stock sound effect in the 1951 Gary Cooper western Distant Drums and has been employed in at least 400 films, TV shows and even video games. It’s named after Private Wilhelm from the 1953 film The Charge at Feather River. The character let loose with the famed scream upon being struck by an arrow, and this legendary sound has become a favorite among filmmakers and an inside joke among movie buffs. 

Soccer Mommy: '80s-esque Alt-rock ⚽️

Fans of pop-infused goth from bands like The Cure or The Smiths should check out Soccer Mommy's album Evergreen, which is scheduled for release tomorrow. The Nashville-based band, fronted by Sophie Allison, leans into dark aesthetics and fantasy pop culture—think Buffy The Vampire Slayer meets Joy Division. Read Full Story

Shifting Vibes 😎

With only 11 days to go until the election, prediction market spreads have diverged materially from national polling results. Pollster Nate Silver and Real Clear Politics both show former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in nearly a dead heat. But aggregate data from betting markets indicates a decisive 59-40 Trump advantage. So, what gives?

Prediction market traders (not unlike active investors) tend to follow trends, and recent events have favored Trump. More than 26 million voters have already cast their ballots, and so far Republican turnout has been larger than expected. In the past two weeks, Trump has successfully orchestrated a series of retail politicking appearances, including a Sunday Night Football game in Pittsburgh, a barbershop in the Bronx and a brief gig at a McDonald’s in a Philadelphia suburb. This Sunday, a rally is planned at Manhattan's Madison Square Garden.

Meanwhile, the window for October surprises is closing. Handicapping the race, we identify only two “known unknowns” that could move the needle in the coming days. For Harris, geopolitical risk remains high with yesterday's news of North Korean troops joining Russian forces in the war against Ukraine. That could thrust the Biden/Harris administration's foreign policy decisions back into the headlines. So could the situation in the Middle East, where we don’t know the scale or impact of a likely Israeli attack on Iran.  

For Trump, aside from the yet-to-be-determined fallout from yesterday's article in The Atlantic, the largest looming unknown is his appearance on tomorrow’s Joe Rogan podcast. Rogan has the most popular podcast in the country and averages more than 11 million listeners per episode. And contrary to conventional thinking, this conversation is a high-risk move for Trump. Although Rogan now considers himself to be in the “middle” politically, he has Democratic DNA. In July 2022, he described himself as a "bleeding heart liberal" on social issues and criticized Republicans for targeting gay marriage and abortion rights. "I used to be part of the blue bubble,” Rogan said recently. “I was 100% a left-leaning person who lived in Los Angeles. I never voted Republican my entire life.”

A lot can go wrong for the extempore ex-President during a two-to-three-hour encounter with Rogan. Prediction market traders will be tuned in.

The Prediction Trade airs live every Thursday at 4:30 p.m. Eastern at tastylive and replays on-demand @tastylivetrending on YouTube. 

More Cowbell

This YouTube channel features daily Palantir news. 

Palantir can't solve our government waste problem.

Retail interest in options trading has hit a new high. 
The IRS just announced new tax brackets for 2025. 
Here’s how and why technical analysis works. 
CNBC Survey: Trump leads Harris on the economy. 

Cherry Picks: Earnings, IV rank & backtesting tools.  
Traders join Cboe, CME and tasty in Dallas (11.2.24).
A (more) cowbell song list that Will Ferrell would love.  

Share the Luckbox—forward to a friend.
Subscribe for free here.

Now go on, get lucky.

Luckbox Magazine is a product and service offered by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”). Luckbox Magazine content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involves risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. The information provided in Luckbox Magazine may not be appropriate for all individuals, and is provided without respect to any individual’s financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Transaction costs (commissions and other fees) are important factors and should be considered when evaluating any securities, futures, or digital asset transaction or trade. For simplicity, the examples and illustrations in these articles may not include transaction costs. Nothing contained in this magazine constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, promotion or offer by Luckbox Magazine or tastylive, Inc., or any of its subsidiaries, affiliates or assigns. While Luckbox Magazine and tastylive believe that the information contained in Luckbox Magazine is reliable and make efforts to assure its accuracy, the publisher disclaims responsibility for opinions and representation of facts contained therein. Active investing is not easy, so be careful!