TGIT: Of Mice and Men, Markets and Music

Disney, debates, delta, Steamboat Willie, Wilderado, whisky and more. First time reading? Join other risk-takers, entrepreneurs, traders, investors, data geeks and alpha types. Sign up for free here.

In a move as predictable as the next Fast and Furious sequel, the Fed cut interest rates by half a percentage point, bringing them down to 4.75%-5%. Guess they finally noticed the economic storm that’s brewing. Credit card debt is skyrocketing, delinquencies are through the roof and Jennifer Lopez can't sell tickets. Despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell deeming our economy "basically fine,” food prices and rent remain high, car payments are in arrears and folks are tightening their belts another notch. High interest rates are hurting us more than inflation right now. The Fed took its sweet time but, hey, at least they're finally acting on the dual mandate of price stability and employment. Not exactly election meddling, just late to the party. 

Speaking of elections (and who isn’t), Harris vs. Trump polling remains tight, even among Luckbox readers. Our election survey is ready for your thoughts on their recent debate, the electoral college, voter IDs at polling places and, of course, the outcome of the election. We’re also giving away Luckbox T-shirts to five random survey participants. Feeling lucky? Take the survey here. 

Elsewhere, Disney’s brands, studios and platforms notched a record-breaking 60 wins at this week’s 76th Emmy Awards. That spurred a 5% lift for the company’s beleaguered stock, which has lost 31% of its value over the past five years while the S&P 500 gained 93%. Can dreams of a recovery come true? Or, has Disney lost its magic?  That’s the question for this week’s Luckbox.  

Editorial Director

America’s relationship with Disney isn’t what it used to be. Sure, the stock’s performed badly, but why are tourists berating the theme parks and why are Wall Street analysts losing faith in the brand? Read Full Story

The return of Bob Iger as Disney CEO has reignited optimism in the company because he aims to steer it through a turnaround. But will the stock's performance align with its lofty valuation? Read Full Story

Avengers: Endgame, Disney's highest-grossing film of all time, grossed $2.7 billion worldwide. It’s second only to Avatar’s $2.9 billion.                                — The Numbers

Garrett Baldwin, the self-proclaimed secretary of finance for the Florida Republic, shares a career's worth of proprietary research on recurring patterns of insider buying, momentum signals and global liquidity. He also lets us in on the No. 1 stock to buy the next time insiders load up and the central banks begin to bail out the system ... again. Read Full Story

Tim Knight evaluates 60 years of Disney stock trendlines to determine the next likely phase of price movement. He also reveals the probability of a January surprise. Read Full Story

Every Tuesday and Thursday, Tony “The Bat” Battista offers trade ideas on a YouTube channel podcast called Options Trades Today. Battista, a legendary options trader and valued co-host to trading guru Tom Sosnoff on the tastylive financial network, excels at educating traders at all levels. His career began when he landed a job as a runner on the floor of the CBOE, and he went on to make a million dollars in one day during the ’87 crash. Now, he shares his best trade ideas on tastylive and wherever you listen to podcasts.

In this recent episode of Market Measures, Tom Sosnoff and Tony Battista review 20 years of market data related to probability of profit (POP). Then they use it to reveal optimal strategies for achieving maximum profit when trading options 21 days prior to expiration.

Why is the earliest version of Mickey Mouse suddenly appearing in comics, horror movies, video games and porn films? Well, the 1928 incarnation of Disney’s OG creature has entered the public domain. Read Full Story

Beyonce’s Sir Davis Whisky 🥃

We quickly pre-ordered a bottle when the release was announced earlier this month. Our expectations were elevated because the distinguished distiller Dr. Bill Lumsden—of Ardbeg and Glenmorangie fame—was the label’s consultant. We knew he was seeking to replicate the “elegant mouthfeel and texture reminiscent of Japanese and Scotch whiskies, while retaining the robust and deep flavors typical of classic American rye.” It arrived yesterday, so here’s the skinny.

The 51% rye and 49% malted barley mash bill undergoes a secondary maturation in sherry casks before being bottled in Texas. Cinnamon and toffee notes precede a spicy, buttery orange and sweet cinnamon taste followed by a light honey and ripe cherry finish. While its density is a bit lighter than our preference, and price tag a bit higher than it should be, this sherry-finished rye hits our sweet spot. Sir Davis delivers a unique blend of fruit, sweetness, malt, spice and sherry influences.  

Luckbox review: 3.5 of 5. If you’re a rye drinker, Sir Davis belongs on your bar cart. ($89, 44% ABV) 

Your New Favorite Indie Folk Band 🪕

Regular readers of The Rockhound's reviews are familiar with the Tulsa, Oklahoma-based band Wilderado. But with tomorrow’s release of the rockers' second studio album, Talker, you'll get to know them on a personal level. Perhaps they’ll remind you of The Avett Brothers and Mt. Joy. Read Full Story

The Pollster Who Got 2016 Right 🎱

Should it be legal for Americans to bet on the outcome of elections? The courts are considering that question, and we’re seeking your opinion on the matter in our current election survey.

But while this gets sorted out, Predictit is offering legal but restricted wagering on how the balloting will turn out on Nov. 5. The robust wagering on that platform shows Kamala Harris widening her lead over Donald Trump. Over at Polymarket—an offshore crypto-based prediction market that bans U.S.-based traders—Harris holds a narrower lead.

Can't get enough of this stuff? Watch The Prediction Trade every Thursday at 4:30 p.m. EDT. It’s the only live broadcast for prediction market traders. Mark your calendar for next week's (9.26) special guest, Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar group, was the only well-known pollster who correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win. 

More Cowbell

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Beat our best score (8!) in this engaging browser game. 
Take our election survey to win a Luckbox tee.

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Luckbox Magazine is a product and service offered by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”). Luckbox Magazine content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involves risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. The information provided in Luckbox Magazine may not be appropriate for all individuals, and is provided without respect to any individual’s financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Transaction costs (commissions and other fees) are important factors and should be considered when evaluating any securities, futures, or digital asset transaction or trade. For simplicity, the examples and illustrations in these articles may not include transaction costs. Nothing contained in this magazine constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, promotion or offer by Luckbox Magazine or tastylive, Inc., or any of its subsidiaries, affiliates or assigns. While Luckbox Magazine and tastylive believe that the information contained in Luckbox Magazine is reliable and make efforts to assure its accuracy, the publisher disclaims responsibility for opinions and representation of facts contained therein. Active investing is not easy, so be careful!