TGIT: Meta's Melt-Up, Zuck's Mind Meld & Hochul's Handout

Our issue with Meta, a new AI play, a new IV play, SRTs, Zuckerberg 2.0, Meta's Ray-Bans, Luckbox reader survey results and much more. First time reading? Join other risk-takers, entrepreneurs, traders, investors, data geeks and alpha types. 
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Thank goodness it’s Thursday! (12/12) TGIT savors the opportunity to use this introductory segment of our weekly letter to focus our cynical lens on timely tomfoolery. This week, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul delivered the goods by announcing her proposal to send 8.6 million New Yorkers an inflation refund check in 2025. Families earning up to $300,000 would receive $500 payments, while individuals making up to $150,000 would get $300. In total, $3 billion would be distributed to 8.6 million New Yorkers.

[Cue eye roll.] Because nothing fixes inflation (where too much money is chasing too few goods) like flooding the economy with more cash! And the best part? The state's facing a $14 billion deficit and crushing debt. Plus, it has the second-highest tax rate in America and collects an average of $12,000 per person annually. But, who needs fiscal responsibility when you've got an election coming up in two years?

Speaking of cynicism, Meta Platforms (META) has donated $1 million to Trump's inaugural fund, marking a dramatic shift in the relationship between the former president and company CEO Mark Zuckerberg. The donation follows a November meeting at Mar-a-Lago, where Zuckerberg showed Trump the new Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses. Meta's million-dollar inaugural donation marks a first—the company and Zuckerberg skipped Trump's inauguration in 2017 and Biden's in 2021.

This olive branch comes after Trump threatened to jail Zuckerberg over his $419 million donation to "election infrastructure" during the 2020 pandemic, which Trump claimed helped Democrats. "Election Fraudsters ... will be sent to prison. ZUCKERBUCKS, be careful!" Trump posted in July. 

The tension seemed to ease after Zuckerberg called Trump’s response to an attempted assignation “badass.” Yes, Meta's most recent donation pales in comparison to Elon Musk's $250 million campaign contribution but signals a clear attempt at reconciliation. 

This issue includes looks into Zuckerberg (2.0), Meta’s new smart glasses and the near-term prospects for Meta stock—which is up more than 80% so far this year.

Stay lucky! 

Editorial Director

Even without a ban on TikTok, Meta (META) appears likely to maintain its impressive momentum. Our analyst examines the $1.5 trillion tech titan’s current valuation and assesses its prospects. Read Full Story

In July 2006, Mark Zuckerberg turned down Yahoo's offer to purchase 2-year-old Facebook for $1 billion. At the time, the site had $30 million in revenue and wasn't profitable.

Meta (META) CEO Mark Zuckerberg has sent his gray T-shirts to Goodwill, let his hair grow out into ringlets and taken to publicizing some freaky pursuits. It could be last-minute childishness, an early midlife crisis, his awkward attempt to relate to customers, a belated distraction from his company’s controversies or a not-so-subtle overture to Trump. Read Full Story

Nebius (NBIS) is going all in on AI infrastructure in Europe. The company has severed ties with Russia, made plans to invest $1 billion and secured the backing of Nvidia (NVDA). But is its current stock price too good to be true? Read Full Story

Are options traders paying too much for fear? Our research reveals a striking pattern: Options pricing usually overstates actual market movements. Analysis shows the SPY staying within expected ranges 81% of the time. Even volatile stocks like Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA) show similar trends. Discover how this pricing disconnect could be your next trading edge. Read Full Story

Join options trading legend Tom Sosnoff and Bad Trader's Julia Spina as they dive deep into market regimes and volatility patterns. Discover the key indicators of regime shifts, from VIX spikes above 30 to increased sector correlations. Plus, find out why diversification matters more than ever in high-volatility markets. Watch the video.

While reading Andrew Prochnow’s coverage of Meta Platforms (META), it occurred to us that we have a friend in management there. We called and asked if she happened to have the new $299 Meta Ray-Ban smart glasses because we wanted to test them and write a Luckbox product review. She did, and we did. Our opinion may surprise you. Read Full Story

Here's Looking at You 🪞

We've always pictured Luckbox readers as alpha-types—self-directed investors, active traders, entrepreneurs and measured risk takers. So we put that to the test. For the past month we’ve surveyed you nonstop to get a better feel for how we can do better by you. Here's what y'all look like. Read Full Story

As banks strive to optimize their balance sheets, "Significant Risk Transfers" (SRTs) are emerging as a game-changing but potentially dangerous financial tool. This $200 billion global market enables banks to offload credit risk to investors, freeing up capital for new lending. While European banks have long embraced SRTs, U.S. institutions are just now beginning to issue them. Just the same, analysts project the market here has reached $30 billion. President-elect Trump is promising deregulation, so investors may want to understand both the opportunities and risk. Read Full Story

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Read this before Costco reports earnings after today’s close. 

How (and why) to trade bitcoin futures. 

The life cycle of a bold Nvidia earnings trade. 

Quantum computing just had its ChatGPT moment.

Clickbait: Texas thinks six sex toys are one too many. 

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