TGIT: Why We Love Days Like These (and Other Stories)

Correction Alert, DOGE bets, Booz, ServiceNow, Leidos, Nutanix, VNet, theta betrayal, a copper play, political chaos, a new Rising Star and more. First time reading? Join other risk-takers, entrepreneurs, traders, investors, data geeks and alpha types. Sign up for free here.

Thank goodness it's Thursday! (3/13) Investors scrambled for the Xanax after Monday's 2.7% stock plunge brought the S&P 500 down 9.3% from its high. And this morning's lower opening brings us to the cusp of a (10%) "correction.” But before you overreact, remember this: Bear markets start with a whimper, not a bang. This downturn has "correction" written all over it—sharp, scary and accompanied by enough apocalyptic headlines to fill a cable broadcaster's teleprompter. True bear markets crawl along at a leisurely -2% monthly pace, saving their worst bloodletting for the final act—not this dramatic nosedive in under a month.

Moreover, DataTrek research reveals that since 1990, in years when the VIX breached 27.3, the S&P 500 still managed an average return of 10.1%. The seven years when stocks actually finished negative occurred when the VIX closed above 27.3 at least eleven times. So far, we've had precisely one such closing. One.

The financial media's favorite game is convincing you that this time is different. It rarely is. These corrections are Wall Street's version of a colonic—unpleasant but ultimately cleansing. Exiting now is like leaving a concert during the bathroom break. The best parts often come after the intermission, and you'll have paid full price to miss the finale.

Our suggestion? Times like this are when tastylive is at its best. It offers live market commentary throughout the trading day from veteran traders reacting in real time and answering pressing portfolio questions from active traders. No need to go it alone. Watch tastylive daily from the market's opening through after the close at tastylive or on YouTube.

Keep cool and stay lucky!

Editorial Director

The Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) $11 billion government gravy train is about to derail. With 98% of its revenue dependent on taxpayer dollars, a recent $377 million fraud settlement and Elon Musk's DOGE brigade demanding justification for every contract, Wall Street's favorite government contractor faces an existential crisis. As its stock plummets 30% and CEO Horacio Rozanski desperately rebrands his PowerPoint army as a "tech company," 34,000 employees see their futures hanging in the balance. The question isn't whether the company will survive DOGE's efficiency crusade—it's how much will be left when Musk finishes swinging his axe. Read Full Story

While Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency uncovers 35,000 unused ServiceNow (NOW) licenses gathering digital dust on federal servers, Wall Street still values the company at a preposterous 100 times earnings. The stock has cratered 30% since January, vaporizing $75 billion in market cap faster than a Zero DTE option's theta. Yet, somehow shares trade at five times the sector's average valuation. ServiceNow's subscription growth forecast—the one metric that actually matters—just landed at 19%, below expectations. Luckbox analyst-at-large Andrew Prochnow shares his thoughts on what lies ahead. Read Full Story

Leidos (LDOS), a giant defense contractor riding high on Uncle Sam's credit card, just watched a smallish contract vanish into the DOGE abyss. But larger cancellations could be looming. Wall Street's reaction? A pathetic "hold" rating and a forecast of 3% growth that would embarrass a savings account. Yet remarkably, the stock maintains a stubborn support at $125, creating a rare opportunity for options traders with enough nerve to sell puts before April 17, comfortably ahead of earnings. Read Full Story

Nutanix (NTNX), once merely a data center disruptor, is now feasting on VMware's (VMW) corporate refugees while posting the kind of numbers that make analysts swoon. Bucking the market trend—up 12% year-to-date and with 710 new corporate clients beating down its door—the company's valuation has sparked heated debate. But as tech titans scramble to keep pace with the hybrid cloud revolution, Nutanix's transformation from upstart to essential player suggests this might be more than just another Silicon Valley sugar high. Read Full Story

Why We Love ♥️ Days Like These

So far, the Cboe Implied Volatility Index (VIX) has remained above 20 every day this month. In a recent appearance on Yahoo! Finance's Stocks in Translation podcast, legendary options trader Tom Sosnoff breaks down the opportunity this serves up for active options traders.

“The easiest way to look at this is the higher the implied volatility, the larger the expected move,” Sosnoff said. “It just means that plus or minus, it is going to be a bigger move, which means more opportunity. If you’re a premium seller, it’s better.

"If you’re just a directional trader, it’s better. If you’re an opportunist, it’s better. So for self-directed investors and institutional investors as well, higher volatility means more action, more fun. That’s why you’re seeing the huge options volume lately, and that’s why you’re seeing all the general activity in the markets.”

Catch the full podcast here.

Implied volatility is one of the most important factors in options trading. In this special episode of Options Trading Concepts Live, Nick Battista and Mike Butler share everything you need to know about underlying implied volatility, per strike volatility, volatility skews and how time influences volatility. A complete A-Z on everything vol! Watch it here.

VNET Is Eating America's AI Lunch

Surfing the AI tsunami, VNET Group (VNET) has become China’s data center powerhouse. Its stock has quietly doubled in value this year, while its wholesale IDC business surged a staggering 86%. It reached those heights by pivoting from retail mediocrity to high-margin enterprise dominance, and Wall Street has taken notice. In fact, stock analysts are practically genuflecting, with 12 of 13 bestowing their blessing. At a time when most Chinese tech stocks are treated like pariahs with communicable diseases, VNET offers that rarest of commodities: growth without the valuation hangover. Read Full Story

Meet Jonathan Haas, the Oxford-educated finance professional who committed the cardinal sin of ignoring Wall Street's conventional wisdom. After warnings that his options trading strategy would inevitably fail, tastylive's newest Rising Star delivered a stunning 61% return in 2023 and 45% in 2024, growing his trading account to $2.6 million. The former Blackstone and Royal Bank of Canada director now trades full-time using "skewed strangles" on futures—avoiding single stocks entirely. His journey wasn't without catastrophe; a 50% drawdown in 2022 taught him the painful lesson of what happens when he strays from his strategy. His story and video are here.

Think you're clever selling premium and watching it decay like ice cream on a Vegas sidewalk? Think again. Since the election, market volatility has been slapping options traders across the face with brutal price movements, exposing the dirty secret of premium selling: Theta isn't always your friend. While naked positions maintain positive decay regardless of price movement, those "safer" risk-defined strategies can flip to negative theta faster than a politician changes positions. When your strikes get breached, suddenly you're paying the market daily instead of collecting—a painful lesson that separates the amateurs from the professionals in this unforgiving game. Read Full Story

The derivatives market's power players have spoken, and they're betting on political instability. The time-tested playbook of following monetary policy, interest rates and GDP numbers has been shredded. And the FIA's latest industry survey reveals an uncomfortable truth: Political chaos and geopolitical conflict, not economic fundamentals, are expected to drive trading volume in 2025. View the survey here.

President Trump's executive order to establish a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve alongside a crypto asset stockpile marks Bitcoin's official recognition as a national strategic asset. But markets tumbled upon the revelation the reserve would consist only of cryptocurrencies seized in investigations, not government purchases.

From snatching the Silk Road's digital fortune to confiscating the Bitfinex hack loot, Uncle Sam has transformed law enforcement into an accidental investment strategy. The feds have muscled their way into becoming Bitcoin whales, commanding a hefty 1% slice of the entire Bitcoin pie. The U.S. government holds 198,109 Bitcoin, making it one of the largest institutional holders. You can track the daily value of the Bitcoin Reserve here.

A Copper Call Spread🥉

Copper prices are surging toward all-time highs while China cranks out record copper production. The price arbitrage between U.S. and London markets has hit a perverse 10%, creating a copper migration that would make border hawks blush. For traders smart enough to ignore the political theater, a call spread at today's suppressed volatility looks almost as appealing as the metal itself. Read Full Story

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