TGIT: Choke, Panic, Profit and 6 New Trade Ideas

Genius bets, Newsmax frets, LNG trades, oil fades, bitcoin beats bonds, the US (possibly) wages war, and a broken wrist leads to 120% returns. First time reading? Join other risk-takers, entrepreneurs, traders, investors, data geeks and alpha types. Sign up for free here.

TGI Thursday! (6/19) Israel bombed Iran, Iran retaliated and crude oil markets had their predictable panic attack — spiking 14% before cooling to $72 per barrel as traders remembered fundamentals still exist. The real fear isn't that the world will lose the 4.2 million barrels Iran produces daily; it's the potential chaos in the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint where 20 million barrels flow daily — roughly 20% of global petroleum consumption.

Block that narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, and there’ll be an immediate supply crunch in the countries that collectively buy 69% of oil transiting the Strait — China, India, Japan and South Korea. Prices could hit triple digits faster than Pentagon officials can draft strongly worded statements. Already, two tankers collided and caught fire near the Strait this week, not from missiles but from navigation jammed by regional electronic warfare. The infrastructure is more fragile than anyone wants to admit.

The Biden Administration's energy policy remains a study in contradictory thinking: Terrified that higher pump prices would crater Democratic poll numbers, they loosened sanctions on Iranian oil exports while crafting performative Russian sanctions that allowed Beijing and New Delhi to buy discounted crude via "shadow tankers." Instead of choking off Tehran's revenue stream, they handed Iran tens of billions to fund nuclear ambitions and proxy armies. Meanwhile, they subsidized Moscow's war machine while championing Ukrainian sovereignty.

Trump inherits this strategic incoherence just as Middle East tensions peak. The choice is stark: Continue poll-driven energy theater or recognize that actual energy security requires more than tweet-friendly soundbites. Iran's nuclear ambitions coupled with Trump's instinct to counter his TACO persona adds more uncertainty to handicapping the outcome.

For hands-on investors, geopolitical volatility creates sector rotation opportunities when algorithms panic and fundamentals get temporarily divorced from price action.

Stay lucky!

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Publishing note: Because of today's national holiday, this TGIT was completed yesterday (TGIW?) and scheduled for delivery today. So, if some outlier event has occurred since yesterday afternoon — like "stupid" Powell lowering rates (not likely) or the US amping up its role in the Middle East war (not unlikely) — tune in to tastylive or @tastyliveshow on YouTube tomorrow morning for live, up to the moment market coverage.

Letter to Editor

Crude oil has rallied but inventory data tells a different story: Crude stocks fell while gasoline inventories jumped 5.2 million barrels, signaling weak US demand. No actual supply disruptions have occurred — just algorithmic panic pricing. When fear outpaces fundamentals, options get mispriced. One contrarian trader is shorting the hysteria with a targeted call-selling strategy on United States Oil ETF (USO), betting that $94 oil requires more than missile headlines and breathless cable news coverage. Read Full Story

While crude oil grabs headlines with Middle East theatrics, natural gas (LNG) has quietly crushed it — up 65% since November vs. oil's measly 10%. The real story isn't geopolitical drama. It's AI data centers devouring power and LNG exports reshaping global energy flow. Andrew Prochnow, Luckbox analyst-at-large, dissects three gas-levered plays: A vertically integrated giant now trading at nosebleed valuations; a tactically sharp but overpriced exploration company; and a post-merger powerhouse generating $2 billion in free cash flow. One clear winner emerges from this algorithmic energy revolution. Read Full Story

Natural gas accounted for roughly 38% of US total energy production in 2024.

— Energy Information Administration

The Newsmax (NMAX) post-IPO journey reads like a fever dream of retail speculation meets cable news disruption. After rocketing from $10 to $265 and then crashing back to $13, this conservative media darling now faces the ultimate stress test: A Dominion defamation trial that could either vindicate its business model or obliterate its balance sheet. Revenue's climbing, losses persist and the company's betting everything on a digital pivot. Read Full Story

Forget the flashy sportsbooks — Genius Sports (GENI) owns the pipes that make every bet flow, and the NFL just bought 9% of the plumbing. That made the league the largest shareholder in the company, and nothing says "confidence" like America's most profitable entertainment cartel taking a $230 million stake. With 15 of 16 analysts screaming "buy" and the stock sitting 28% below target, someone's about to look either brilliant or foolish. In the infrastructure wars of sports betting, the plumbing always beats the fixtures. Read Full Story

While financial advisors peddle passive 7% annual returns, Emily Wiser — a stay-at-home mom with zero financial pedigree — crushed 122% gains during her first year of trading options from her kitchen table. A wrist injury killed her goldsmithing career in 2019, so she did what any rational person would do: Taught herself put spreads on big tech stocks with the help of tastylive videos. Six years later, her disciplined approach has generated enough returns to retire her husband early. Her method works, her results speak volumes and traditional finance can't explain it away. But she can. (Spoiler Alert: LEAPs.) See Emily tell her story in the newest installment of the ever-popular Rising Stars video series, here.

This week's Cherry Picks dishes on the MicroStrategy (MSTR) rebrand to "Strategy." The company has decided to issue debt, buy bitcoin and trade at a hefty premium to NAV. Also, silver’s rally against gold, tastytrade launches forex, and two specific energy trade ideas that don't require paying someone else's leverage markup. Read Full Story

Small-account traders selling naked options face a brutal reality: Buying power requirements that can explode 200%+ when markets move against you. That cozy 30% capital allocation suddenly becomes 100% real fast. The solution isn't complex algorithms or sophisticated risk models — it's stupidly simple. Trade cheaper stocks, manage positions early and hunt for high IV. Read Full Story

When Israel went kinetic with Iran last week, something weird happened in markets. Stocks fell, sure. But bonds — those supposedly bulletproof government-backed safe havens — fell, too. What rallied? Bitcoin, the "volatile speculative bubble,” according to every "financial advisor.” Veteran market strategist, tastylive researcher and Cherry Bomb author Tom Preston reveals the new reality. Read Full Story

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