TGIT: Can Netflix Keep Making New Highs?

The debate, Swift, Buffett, butterflies, lies, OXY, outlaws, Netflix and more. 

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Thank goodness it’s Thursday! This week brought another presidential debate and another inspirational reminder that in America practically anyone has a shot at becoming the commander in chief of the world’s most powerful military. USA, USA!

We were similarly excited by Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris. What could be a more meaningful measure of whether our candidates truly reflect the zeitgeist of the electorate than celebrity affirmation?

But while Swift’s accomplishments as a singer-songwriter are indisputable, she doesn’t occupy the pinnacle of the pop culture leaderboard at the moment on Billboard’s Hot 100️.

So, while we’ve reached out to Shaboozey for his opinions on the upcoming presidential election, in the interim we hope to hear from you.

Please take our debate and election survey here. We’ll share the results, along with some of your comments, in an upcoming issue.

Editorial Director

Don’t you wish you’d bought stock in Netflix back in the day and held it? Shares that cost $1,000 in 2004 are now worth about a quarter of a million dollars. Their value soared as the company popularized CDs, made streaming ubiquitous, conquered Hollywood and fought nefarious password sharing. But now Netflix is eying a startlingly ambitious tech goal that scares us a little. Read Full Story

Netflix earnings have exploded by an average of 597% over the past three quarters.

— Netflix Q2 earnings report

Netflix is trading near all-time highs. But do 278 million paid memberships and $9.5 billion in Q2 revenue justify a 42 P/E ratio? Our analyst looks to Disney for context. Read Full Story

In April 2022, Netflix shed more than $50 billion in market cap after reporting its first loss of subscribers in more than a decade. The stock has climbed out of its hole, but our technician sees more room to the downside in the near term.

Read Full Story

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) owns about 29% of Occidental Petroleum (OXY) with an average share price around $54. But yesterday the oil company’s stock traded below $50 for the first time in 30 months. Still, our friends at The Florida Republic have been tracking increases in energy insiders’ oil sector purchases and believe that Warren Buffett, who controls Berkshire Hathaway, will resume buying again. Read Full Story

Intraday market moves of 5% or more are rare. But new research shows that when one occurs it then becomes 37 times more likely something similar will happen again soon. Read Full Story

Broken wing butterflies, high-probability options trades with the added kicker of a long spread, present an opportunity: The right management can turn the trade into a "risk free" position. This new episode of Lifecycle of a Trade shows you how.

Netflix has experimented with a handful of live events in an attempt to recapture the feeling of an old-fashioned television premiere. It began last year with Chris Rock’s comedy special and is continuing with shows ranging from a John Mulaney talk fest to weekly WWE Monday Night Raw wrestling matches. Here’s a list of upcoming live events and a rundown on the platform’s new releases for fall.

Read Full Story

This Review Doesn't Lie 📚

We were among the two million viewers captivated by Alex Edman's TED Talk on trust. Now, his new book has earned a spot on our recommended reading list. It’s called May Contain Lies: How Stories, Statistics and Studies Exploit Our Biases—And What We Can Do About It. Read Full Story

Fiction from The Technician📱

Solid State, a near-future thriller by Luckbox technical analyst Tim Knight, transports readers to the San Francisco Bay Area after terrorists have stripped away access to life's essentials for eight million people. The book drops on Substack (for free!) on Sept. 16.

Political Futures Look Bright 💡

Get ready for more events betting markets. This week a federal court agreed to allow Kalshi to list markets on congressional election outcomes. But the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is still fighting the legalization of political wagering platforms and has scheduled a hearing for today. 

Over at Predictit, Kamala Harris picked up a couple of points after her strong debate performance Tuesday. Pre-debate she was trading at 53¢ (indicating a 53% probability she will win the election) and post-debate Harris stock is trading higher. On Polymarket, Donald Trump was trading at 53¢ pre-debate but is now trading lower.

Outlaw Music Festival Fail 🤠

The Outlaw Music Festival is serving up a legendary lineup headlined by heartland rocker John Mellencamp, folk singer-songwriter Bob Dylan and outlaw country icon Willie Nelson. One of them turned in an uninspired performance at the tour’s Chicago area stop. Read Full Story

More Cowbell

Ten semiconductor stocks for your watchlist. 
The NFL’s $240 million-dollar man. 
Zero DTE all day! A new 24/7 YouTube stream. 
Your new favorite website offers no redeeming value. 
Attend An Active Trader’s Path to Success (Miami, 9/21).

 The 2024 International Whisky Competition results. 
Tell us who won the debate, and who will win the election. 

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