TGIT: More on Drugs, Bitcoin Pizza and 6 New Trade Ideas

23andYou, genetic gold, sexy biotech, plighted United Health, vaccine follies, Greek gods, financial folklore, Qualcomm, wheat, stagflation and more. First time reading? Join other risk-takers, entrepreneurs, traders, investors, data geeks and alpha types. Sign up for free here.

TGI Thursday, 5/22 … also known as “Bitcoin Pizza Day!” In crypto's pantheon of self-inflicted wounds, none bleeds quite like Bitcoin Pizza Day. On May 22, 2010, programmer Laszlo Hanyecz traded 10,000 bitcoin – now worth over $1 billion – for two Papa John's pizzas. While the rest of us would be washing down Xanax with whiskey after such a catastrophic financial blunder, Hanyecz maintains his Buddhist calm, insisting he has "no regrets" about the transaction that effectively valued each pepperoni slice at approximately $50 million. "I was winning the internet that day," he claims, in what might be history's most expensive victory lap.

For you math geeks, the percentage return on Bitcoin since May 22, 2010 until today is approximately 2.72 billion percent. (Perhaps a poignant reminder of why you may want to heed our five-year forecast for Palantir?)

Bitcoin is celebrating the 15th BPD with new all time highs.

In other breaking news, the Pentagon has confirmed the U.S. Air Force formally accepted Qatar's generous gift of a luxurious Boeing 747 "flying palace" to serve as part of the Air Force One fleet. Meanwhile, the House passed President Trump's highly anticipated tax legislation, which he described as "big, beautiful" and notably includes a provision for "no tax on tips." The bill now moves to the Senate for consideration.

These two developments have the Luckbox editorial team considering whether our modest tip jar ambitions might be thinking too small.

Finally, a big thanks to our readers for your free suggestions and untaxing feedback. Your encouraging comments on last week's pharma articles inspired us to bring you more coverage of the sector in this issue.

Stay lucky!

Letter to Editor

Regeneron + 23andMe:
Genetic Gold at a Garage Sale Price

While investors stampede toward the exits, dumping Regeneron (REGN) shares like radioactive waste, they've managed to overlook the obvious: This biotech juggernaut is trading at half its peak value despite sitting on $17 billion in cash, Dupixent's 19% growth and an oncology pipeline set to deliver billions. At 15x earnings — well below sector averages — the market has priced this stock like it's terminal. Meanwhile, management launched a dividend and authorized $4.5 billion in buybacks, practically screaming they think the stock's undervalued.

Luckbox analyst-at-large Andrew Prochnow makes the bull case against the backdrop of Regeneron’s bearish chart pattern and announced acquisition of 23andMe (MEHCQ). Read Full Story

More than 80% of 23andMe's 15 million customers have consented to using their (DNA) data for research.

—  23andMe

Shares in Exelixis (EXEL) have doubled in price over the past year as this oncology outfit transforms itself from one-trick pony into a $12 billion juggernaut. Plus, it’s accomplishing its metamorphosis while managing to keep its balance sheet cleaner than a surgeon's scalpel. Now, six pivotal trials for its next-generation cancer killer hang in the balance — potentially catapulting this mid-cap marvel into Big Pharma territory. The countdown to colorectal cancer data has begun, and our analyst-at-large isn't waiting for the results. Read Full Story

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) stands accused of the most cynical form of Medicare fraud imaginable — paying nursing homes to keep the elderly out of hospitals, potentially condemning vulnerable patients to suffer or die to pad profit margins. With the CEO fleeing the scene and the DOJ circling like vultures, this stock's recent bounce resembles nothing so much as a terminally ill patient's final rally before coding. The technical charts aren't just bearish — they're writing the obituary. Errol Coleman makes the case for a precisely engineered bear call spread. Read Full Story

This past week, two FDA officials announced in the New England Journal of Medicine that COVID mRNA booster vaccines will require new trials before administering the drugs to healthy people under the age of 65. Drug manufacturers seem certain to dodge this idea like a politician avoids direct questions.

Yet beneath this veneer of scientific rigor, lies a loophole so massive it could accommodate Pfizer's entire executive fleet of private jets. The "at risk" exemption category includes smokers, pregnant women, diabetics and — wait for it — the mildly obese (BMI over 30). That's conveniently 40% of American adults! They've even included "physical inactivity" as a qualifying condition, essentially making 80% of Americans eligible without rigorous trials. No wonder stock in Moderna (MRNA) jumped 10%. This isn't restriction; it's regulatory sleight-of-hand. Nevertheless, it does present a new wrinkle in the revenue outlook for Pfizer (PFE), BioNTech (BMTX) and other top mRNA manufacturers.

RFK Jr. is facing the $5 trillion healthcare-industrial behemoth and its army of lobbyists and bought politicians. This tepid measure shows just how powerful that machine remains, even as evidence mounts about mRNA vaccines' questionable risk-benefit ratio for healthy individuals.

While investors embrace overpriced GPU manufacturers and cloud computing darlings, Qualcomm (QCOM) is quietly building the actual future of artificial intelligence — on your phone, in your car and in your pocket. On-device AI doesn't require billion-dollar data centers or enough electricity to power Belgium. But the Liberation Day sell-off created an artificial discount for Qualcomm stock. Here's a company with bulletproof fundamentals, 5G royalty cash flows and positioning in the only AI strategy that makes mathematical sense. Read Full Story

Six battle-hardened veterans of the market handpicked by options trading legend Tom Sosnoff mercilessly dissect options portfolio construction — showing you precisely how to slaughter sentiment on the altar of statistical advantage. Learn about the unholy marriage of mathematical edge and execution discipline, position balancing, position sizing that treats capital with the seriousness it deserves, effective diversification across genuinely uncorrelated assets and Greek control mechanisms that would make Aristotle weep.

This isn't some feel-good seminar. This is product indifference and capital efficiency with disciplined risk management that borders on puritanical. Watch the full video here.

This week’s Cherry Picks, our second favorite newsletter, reminds us that the tired maxim "sell in May and go away" is precisely the kind of financial astrology that keeps mediocre investors poor. The data speaks with brutal clarity: Since 1994, May has been positive 59% of the time. Yet the financial clergy continue peddling this nonsense like medieval priests selling indulgences. Meanwhile, the crypto zealots at tastytrade now offer 20 digital tokens, including XRP — complete with CME futures and potential ETFs — offering another opportunity to watch libertarian fantasies collide with regulatory reality. And for the mathematically literate, there's a free option pricing spreadsheet — because nothing says "I understand markets" like Excel macros from strangers. Also, two new trade ideas involving Tesla (TSLA) and gold. View the latest Cherry Picks here.

Wheat watchers have gone cold on the grain, with prices languishing at five-year lows — barely half their Ukraine invasion peak. But a contrarian play is forming in the shadows. Chinese buyers are quietly circling, whispers about the Russian crop are spreading and American farmers are threatening to feed their grain to livestock instead of selling at cost. The upshot? A swift market reversal may be brewing for wheat's inevitable resurrection. Read Full Story

The 1970s Called and Want Their Stagflation Back 💰

Global inflation is stirring from its nap, and the markets are whistling past the graveyard of economic reality. While Wall Street cheerleaders celebrate "normal" US inflation figures, the ugly truth is lurking in plain sight across the developed world – prices are sneaking upward while growth sputters to a crawl. Meanwhile, businesses are swallowing tariff-induced cost spikes that will inevitably be vomited onto consumers' laps. The stagflation monster — that horrifying 1970s economic chimera — is scratching at the door once again. Ilya Spivak (profiled here in last week’s Luckbox) sounds the alarm while markets remain conspicuously deaf. Read Full Story

For decades, weather scientists have peddled the gospel of the "two-week limit,” the supposedly inviolable barrier beyond which forecasting becomes impossible, thanks to butterflies flapping their chaos-causing wings. Now, Google's AI researchers have shattered the theoretical limit, extending meaningful forecasts to over a month with jaw-dropping improvements in accuracy. Weather's crystal ball just got dramatically clearer — so don't rule out the idea that more accurate market forecasting isn't far behind. Read Full Story

More Cowbell

Errol Coleman has a timely trade idea for Merck. 

The GOP spending bill is sending yields higher.

An update on Trump’s “MFN” drug-pricing EO. 

The White House case for lower tax rates.

Upcoming (live & virtual) tastylive events.

ICYMI: tastylive’s best videos of the week. 

The reason to exercise before breakfast. 

The AI winner will "control the world."

An AI innovation boom lies ahead.

ICYMI: Last week’s Luckbox TGIT. 

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