TGIT: Bezos Bargain Bamboozle, 12 Trade Ideas and Sweet Home Chicago

Discounts, dopamine, digital feudalism, flying taxis, assignment risk, cherry picks, tax rates, hockey skates, live trading and much more. First time reading? Join other risk-takers, entrepreneurs, traders, investors, data geeks and alpha types. Sign up for free here. 

TGI Thursday! (7/10) We're in the final hours of Amazon Prime Day so get those orders in! But let’s remember, Prime Day isn't Amazon's gift to you — it's the company’s solution to a warehouse space problem wrapped in consumer psychology 101. Jeff Bezos didn't wake up one morning thinking "how can I put more discounted AirTags in the hands of absent-minded Prime members?" It was more like ”how do I dump excess inventory while making people thank me for it?"

The brilliant part? Amazon has convinced millions that paying $139 annually for the privilege of buying marked-up merchandise at "discounted" prices represents peak consumer savvy. It's like joining a country club where the main perk is getting overcharged for dinner.

Here's how the magic works: Amazon quietly raises prices weeks before Prime Day and then slaps "40% OFF!" stickers on everything. Customers see red numbers and experience the same dopamine hit lab rats get from cocaine. Meanwhile, those Lightning Deals create artificial scarcity because nothing says "smart shopping" like panic-buying a $200 Yeti cooler you don't need because a timer is counting down.

The real genius? Loss-leading on Echo devices that turn your home into a purchasing portal. They'll sell you a $50 smart speaker at cost and then spend the next five years monetizing your grocery lists.

Nevertheless, it’s nearly impossible to resist the pull, so Zacks offers this pro tip: If you wouldn’t buy something at full price, don’t buy it just because it’s 40% off.

Now Alexa, where did I put those AirTags?

Stay lucky!

Letter to Editor

Amazon (AMZN) has transformed itself from a growth story into a profit machine.

The market's muted response to this metamorphosis may present a rare megacap opportunity for patient investors willing to look past quarterly noise. Luckbox analyst-at-large Andrew Prochnow makes a market call. Read Full Story

Amazon Prime members:
Gen Z  — 5%, millennials — 27%, Gen X — 35%,
baby boomers/seniors — 33%.

— Yaguara

If you think Amazon is capitalism's crowning achievement, longtime Luckbox contributor Garrett Baldwin has news for you: It's actually medieval feudalism with same-day delivery. This systematic breakdown reveals how Jeff Bezos built a digital empire where third-party sellers pay tribute, warehouse workers live under algorithmic surveillance and everyone pretends this extraction machine represents free markets.

Baldwin maps Amazon's hierarchy like a scholar of the Middle Ages — from the platform-king who controls digital territory to the gig-serfs timing their bathroom breaks. The personnel data is brutal: 150% annual turnover, injury rates double the industry average, workers urinating in bottles to hit productivity targets. Meanwhile, Amazon holds $96 billion in supplier payments hostage, essentially turning vendors into unwilling banks. The convenience is real, but so is the serfdom. Read Full Story

Assignment risk keeps options traders awake at night — but should it? This Tesla (TSLA) iron condor breakdown punctures the conventional wisdom about early assignment fears. Most traders obsess over getting assigned when they should focus on time decay and volatility shifts. In the newest installment of Life Cycle of a Trade, Nick Battista dissects a recent trade where the underlying moved against him, revealing why assignment anxiety often misses the actual risks. Watch The Video

500% Surge: Smart Business,
Dumb Valuation

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) stock has exploded 500% since its June 5 IPO, transforming a stablecoin issuer into the market's latest obsession. Trading at 570 times earnings, it's priced like the next Google, except it's basically running a digital money printer backed by Treasury bills.

Sure, the GENIUS Act legitimized stablecoins. Yes, institutions are finally warming to programmable dollars. But at these valuations, Circle needs to execute flawlessly while interest rates stay high and Coinbase (COIN) doesn't renegotiate its revenue-sharing deal. The company might be building tomorrow's financial rails, but today's price assumes they've already laid the entire track. Read Full Story

Palantir (PLTR) — the AI surveillance darling and Luckbox watchlist favorite that made investors 450% richer last year — just disclosed it owns nearly 20% of a $4.50 flying car penny stock. Surf Air Mobility (SRFM) rocketed 150% in eight trading days after the revelation. Either Peter Thiel's crew spotted the next Tesla (TSLA) of aviation, or they're cosplaying venture capitalists with shareholder money. The data giant built custom software for this California startup, then doubled down with equity. Read Full Story

This Week's Cherry Picks Has Four
New Trading Ideas

The latest Cherry Picks serves up a contrarian playbook: Sell premium on volatility-obsessed healthcare institutions, ride Solana's momentum as it sheds last year's loser status, take advantage of Palantir's AI hysteria for premium income and bet against the dollar's consensus collapse with a defined-risk EUR spread. Read Full Story

The S&P 500 just pulled off something genuinely remarkable: An 86-day sprint to new highs that ranks as the third-fastest recovery since 2000. While everyone obsesses over the quick recovery, the real story lies in what didn't happen — virtually no pullbacks, record-speed VIX normalization and institutional panic that evaporated faster than a tech startup's runway cash. Markets aren't supposed to climb this smoothly. Tastylive researcher Kai Zeng provides perspective on the 23% rally that rewrote the physics of volatility. Read Full Story

Chicago's Hottest 🔥 Trading Ticket

The Goddess of Grain and the sultans of selling premium are calling.

After 14 years of dismantling market mythology from their tastylive studios, Tom Sosnoff and Tony Battista are leaving the building to host their first-ever live trading event. It’s sponsored by Cboe and CME Group and scheduled for Chicago’s Thalia Hall on Friday, Aug. 15.

This isn't some sterile financial conference. It's fast-paced, irreverent and designed to challenge everything you think you know about trading. Admission is free, but the event will likely be oversubscribed. Investors with tastytrade accounts get preference because loyalty still matters in this business.

While you're in the Windy City, visit the newly opened Chicago Board of Trade Museum. 

Walk the same floors where hand-signaling traders built American capitalism before algorithms made them extinct.

Do Low-Tax States Win More Stanley Cups? 🥅

Florida just won its fourth Stanley Cup in six years, and some NHL analysts believe the state's zero income tax gives it an unfair advantage because players keep more of their paychecks. But here's what's interesting: Economists actually studied this question by examining decades of data from the NBA, NFL, NHL and MLB. They confirmed some patterns about when tax advantages matter and which leagues show the strongest effects.

Spoiler Alert: Sorry Minnesota, it turns out your state's taxes are indeed a factor. Read Full Story

More Cowbell

Amazon has the world’s largest fleet of industrial robots. 

CNN lists 159 Prime Day alternative shopping site sales.

Three reasons why Errol Coleman is bullish on Eli Lilly.

CNBC ranks the 20 most valuable sports empires. 

Check out tastylive’s best videos of the week. 

Upcoming (live & virtual) tastylive events. 

Consumers are betting against inflation.

ICYMI: Last week’s Luckbox TGIT. 

Share the Luckbox—forward to a friend.
Subscribe for free here.

Luckbox Magazine is a product and service offered by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”). Luckbox Magazine content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involves risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. The information provided in Luckbox Magazine may not be appropriate for all individuals, and is provided without respect to any individual’s financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Transaction costs (commissions and other fees) are important factors and should be considered when evaluating any securities, futures, or digital asset transaction or trade. For simplicity, the examples and illustrations in these articles may not include transaction costs. Nothing contained in this magazine constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, promotion or offer by Luckbox Magazine or tastylive, Inc., or any of its subsidiaries, affiliates or assigns. While Luckbox Magazine and tastylive believe that the information contained in Luckbox Magazine is reliable and make efforts to assure its accuracy, the publisher disclaims responsibility for opinions and representation of facts contained therein. Active investing is not easy, so be careful!