TGIT: Best Bets, Black Swans & More 2025 Forecasts (Part 2 of 3)

Micron's memory, Symbotic' robotics, Black-Scholes, black swans, quantum computing, bias refuting and more. First time reading? Join other risk-takers, entrepreneurs, traders, investors, data geeks and alpha types. Sign up for free here.

Thank goodness it’s Thursday! (1/16) Pausing to take the market’s temperature for Part 2 of our annual forecasting issue, we’re finding the patient even more fevered than expected. The highs of the S&P 500 now tower above the bubbles of 1929 and 2000. The so-called "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks—a name that would have made the propagandist Goebbels wince—are worth nearly as much as the rest of the world's markets combined and command a price-earnings ratio of 62x. The Nasdaq 100 sells for 48x trailing earnings. Nvidia (NVDA) alone is valued higher than the entire U.K. stock market, a fact that should make any active investor reach for a calculator with one hand and a stiff drink with the other.  

BlackRock (BLK), that paragon of Wall Street wisdom whose earnings beat analysts’ estimates yesterday and reports record-high assets under management, helpfully informs us that "historical trends are being permanently broken in real time.” That statement carries all the intellectual rigor of a a ChatGPT rewrite of “it’s different this time.” It’s technically accurate but nonetheless misleading, much like calling Diet Coke a health food. 

Speaking of which, we’re still digesting yesterday’s FDA announcement banning Red Dye No. 3 and contemplating living in a world without Swedish Fish. But, we digress. 

The point is active investors should look outside the (Magnificent Seven) box for new investment themes and ideas. This issue features several, along with the insight of our curated panel of market pros: Tom Sosnoff, Dylan Ratigan, Anthony Scaramucci, Ed Yardeni and others. We asked them to assess market opportunities and risks in the new year. 

So, let’s get to it. As always, keep an open mind, know your options and stay lucky! 

Editorial Director

The memory chip industry is about to experience its most dramatic transformation in recent history, and it's all thanks to high-bandwidth memory. HBM commands five times the price of standard memory while requiring twice the manufacturing capacity to produce. As memory makers pivot their limited resources toward this premium product, they're inadvertently creating a broader market renaissance. While SK Hynix (HXSC) and Samsung (KRW) still dominate HBM, advances at Micron Technology (MU) could help the company close the gap in the coming years. After enduring the worst downturn in memory chip history, we're not just witnessing a recovery—we're seeing the emergence of a new market paradigm that could drive historic profits for years to come. Read Full Story

"We expect to generate multiple billions of dollars in revenue from HBM in fiscal 2025."

— Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron president and CEO

In a confluence of expertise and soothsaying, a panel of Wall Street's finest offer their prognostications for 2025. While quantum computing stocks and the dollar's inevitable descent from its imperial perch feature prominently, it's the panel's black swan predictions that truly titillate. From the imminent collapse of Iran's theocracy to confirmed alien contact, these masters of the universe have abandoned their usual caution for something approaching prophecy. Even The Mooch himself, fresh from his Trump-era redemption tour, weighs in with characteristic bombast. Though perhaps the most telling prediction is Tom Sosnoff's forecast of a Trump-Musk "divorce"—a lovers' quarrel that could rattle markets and Twitter feeds alike. Read Full Story

While the techno-utopians at CES indulge in their annual orgy of future-gazing, one company, Symbotic (SYM), has done what Silicon Valley merely pontificates about—it's actually built robots that work. And not just any robots, mind you, but AI-driven machines that are, as we speak, revolutionizing the warehouses of Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT), two corporate behemoths known as bastions of American retailing efficiency. In the process, Symbotic has posted a remarkable 47% year-over-year increase in revenue. But Symbotic's stock has been punished for accounting irregularities and is now trading 50% lower than its 12-month high. Does that mean the company’s stock presents an opportunity? After all, robotics is one of our favorite investment themes for 2025. Read Full Story

Mathematician and quantitative researcher Jacob Perlman joins Tom Sosnoff and Tony Battista in a special episode of Skinny on Options Math to break down the Black-Scholes model, highlighting both its shortcomings and utility in options pricing. Despite failing to describe underlying price dynamics accurately, the model remains essential because it can derive implied volatility. The conversation emphasized using the model as a baseline, something akin to a heliocentric model in astronomy and it facilites easier interpretation of market behavior. Watch the video here.

In a world where options traders worship at the altar of expiration dates, tastylive researchers have made a startling discovery: Pulling out early appears to be the winning strategy. Managing options 21 days before their supposed climax dramatically reduces their tendency to reach that strike price. Read Full Story

What may be the world's most valuable piece of electronic detritus—a hard drive containing $765 million in bitcoin—lies somewhere in the fetid depths of a Welsh landfill. It was accidentally consigned to the garbage by a man's ex-girlfriend who is now, in her own weary words, "sick and tired of hearing about it." James Howells' 11-year quest to excavate his digital fortune has finally crashed against the unyielding wall of British jurisprudence. A High Court judge has ruled local authorities can continue to deny him access to his buried treasure—8,000 bitcoins, mined when they were worth pennies, now valued in nine figures. That vast fortune may be forever entombed beneath 350,000 tons of refuse, all because of a casual morning's housekeeping and a mix-up between two identical-looking hard drives. Read Full Story

Quantum Computing 101 🎓

Quantum computing is poised to revolutionize industries like cryptography, drug development and finance,. Plus, major players like Alphabet (GOOG), IBM (IBM) and Microsoft (MSFT) are investing in the compex technology despite the market’s skepticism. Author Julia Spina joins trading veterans Tom Sosnoff and Tony Battista to break it down. Watch part one of two here.

Money 💵 Over Mind 🧠

In the grand casino of political prognostication, where partisans clutch their pearls and pundits peddle certainties, prediction markets emerge as our unlikely savior from cognitive delusion. As Trump's controversial defense secretary pick Pete Hegseth faces the Senate's theatrical inquisition, we're confronted with a delicious irony: Might the crass commerce of political prediction markets prove more clear-eyed than our most sophisticated Luckbox readers and our expert forecasting panel? The data suggests something rather shocking—that putting actual money on the line does more to dispel our cherished biases than all the political science degrees in Washington. Read Full Story

One New Trump 🔮

In other prediction market news, Donald Trump Jr. has joined Kalshi, the first (and only) CFTC-regulated prediction market in the United States, as a strategic advisor. The platform, which allows users to trade contracts on real-world events, including election outcomes, gained prominence during the recent election when its traders accurately predicted Trump's victory with 55% probability.

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