We have ideas in TSLA and NFLX. The overnight performance of some of the most widely traded stocks over the past 19 quarters are also highlighted.
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cherry picks

October 17, 2023

Dr. DataMichael Rechenthin, PhD Nick BattistaNick Battista

Download the Historical Earnings Moves

See the historical movements of some of the most popular stocks releasing earnings this week. 

 

See how far the stocks have moved historically around the earnings.  Download the cheat sheet below:

Screen Shot 2023-10-17 at 12.27.12 PM-1

High level calendar for the month:

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Download the earning's calendar for 3500 stocks below. This is from last week's Cherry Picks:

https://cherry-picks-s3-bucket-newsletter.s3.amazonaws.com/live/23_10_10_tastylive_Research.xlsx

Get a $4,000* leg up!

NFLX Earning's Trade

NFLX stock has seen a significant drop from its highs. The stock currently sits mid-way between its 52-week high of $485 and its 52-week low of $237. Additionally, the 200-day simple moving average stands at $374, closely matching its current trading level. If you're seeking to take advantage of a high 48 IVR and believe the stock may see a period of flat performance following earnings announcements, a December iron condor trade involving short options - roughly at the 1 standard deviation - aligns with this assumption. This strategy also encompass most of the price movements from the previous year with breakeven points near high/low levels. This would involve shorting the 310/295 put spread and the 420/435 call spread.

Screen Shot 2023-10-17 at 9.23.42 AM

TSLA Earning's Trade

Following a nearly twofold surge from the 2023 lows, TSLA has remained generally steady for most of Q3. The low IVR of 15, despite the upcoming earnings release, makes long premium strategies favorably affordable for those seeking a directional trade. If you believe the stock may rebound to near its peak, a diagonal spread could be a cost-effective approach to establishing a substantial delta position ahead of the earnings announcement. By buying the December 265 call with a delta of around 44, and shorting the November 285 call with a delta of about 22, you can gain a 22 long delta for a debit of approximately $1,055 - less than half the cost of buying 22 shares. This trade also offers the benefits of positive gamma and positive theta.

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Make a Smart Move.

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