TGIT: Five New Hot Stocks, Tariff Trades and a Sober Warning

Pinduoduo, Tesla, Enbridge, the yield curve, the bubble watch, covered calls, your daily 81 mg dose, a veteran Vegas handicapper's 11 best Super Bowl bets and much more. First time reading? Join other risk-takers, entrepreneurs, traders, investors, data geeks and alpha types. Sign up for free here.

Thank goodness it’s Thursday (2/6), and welcome to the grand theater of global trade politics where Donald Trump's tariff sledgehammer is about to collide into Europe's enlightened bureaucrats. Members of the European Union's leadership class are caught in a trap of their own making. Like amateur chess players who've blundered the queen, they're facing Trump's trade offensive armed with nothing but wishful thinking and moral posturing. 

The evidence stares us in the face: Germany’s in economic decline post-Brexit, the EU's burdened with a massive $209 billion trade surplus with the U.S., and the region’s comically ineffective sanctions just amuse Russia. Yet Brussels' bureaucratic aristocracy clings to the fantasy that they can sweet-talk Trump with promises of American natural gas purchases. 

It’s spectacular self-deception. These are the same people who made unfulfilled promises about NATO spending while assuming his presidency was merely an unfortunate glitch in the matrix. Now, as Trump readies his tariff broadside, they're preparing their usual impotent response: Sanctions on Harley-Davidsons and strongly worded memos. 

Even Jamie Dimon, Wall Street's eternally pragmatic kingmaker, sees Trump's tariff threats as calculated negotiating tactics. But while Dimon appreciates the art of the deal, he’s no doubt wise to a certain fundamental absurdity: You can’t win a trade war when you're running a surplus. It's basic mathematics.  

With Goldman Sachs betting these tariffs won't last long, we're either watching a masterclass in negotiation or the opening act of an economic horror show. 

Strap in ... and stay lucky. 

Editorial Director

In a dramatic display of economic brinkmanship, Trump's tariff threats have triggered chaos while yanking concessions from America's largest trading partners. While Jamie Dimon shrugs off inflationary concerns as the cost of national security, Mexico commits troops, Canada appoints a "Fentanyl Czar" and China unleashes its rare earth mineral weaponry. But as Wall Street dismisses these moves as mere political theater, a deeper game unfolds: Who really pays when trade wars masquerade as border security? The answer hits close to home. Read Full Story

Fentanyl is the leading cause of death for Canadians ages 10 to 59 in British Columbia.

— Washington Post

Trump's latest tariff torpedo aimed at Chinese e-commerce giants might actually create an unexpected opportunity for active investors. While analysts tremble at the death of the de minimis exemption—that clever $800 duty-free loophole that helped flood American homes with bargain goods—Pinduoduo (PDD) stock tells a different story. With a P/E ratio at half its sector median and 44 of 52 analysts still betting big, could Trump's trade war turbulence be the perfect entry point for this Chinese e-commerce juggernaut? Read Full Story

The financial world's most reliable fortune teller—the yield curve—is now performing its most bewildering magic trick yet. After two years of standing on its head (what economists call an "inversion"), it's finally righting itself. But this seemingly positive shift might actually be the economic equivalent of the calm before a hurricane. While the financial media celebrate this return to "normalcy," a disturbing historical pattern suggests we might be whistling past the graveyard. And this time, there's an unprecedented wrinkle in the data that has even the most seasoned market veterans scratching their heads. Read Full Story

While the headlines scream pro and con about Trump's tariff threats against Canada and Mexico, the smart money is watching specific sectors with surgical precision. From the elevated volatility of Tesla (TSLA) options to the quiet vulnerability of energy giants like Enbridge (ENB), this 30-day negotiation window offers both landmines and opportunities. Here's your clear-eyed guide to the winners and losers in this high-stakes economic chess match. Read Full Story

When legendary investor Howard Marks examines today's soaring stock market, he sees an unsettling pattern—one that connects the infamous "Nifty 50” stocks of the 1970s to today's "Magnificent Seven." His On Bubble Watch analysis uncovers a fascinating psychological pattern behind every major market bubble, and why seemingly invincible companies can become investors' worst nightmares. Read what this master of market cycles has noticed about 2025's increasingly frothy stock market—and the surprising historical parallel that has him concerned. Read Full Story

While the tech giants hog the spotlight, a select group of under-the-radar stocks is quietly crushing the market in 2025. Two are pioneering breakthrough medical treatments that could revolutionize how we fight devastating diseases. Another is democratizing healthcare through a controversial yet wildly successful business model. A fourth holds the key to America's most strategic supply chain weakness.

And the fifth? It's weaponizing artificial intelligence to transform medicine as we know it.

With gains already ranging from 36% to 92% this year, these five dark horses aren't just outperforming — they're rewriting the rules of their industries. Read Full Story

In the latest installment of Life Cycle of a Trade, Nick Battista shows you how to execute a synthetic covered call on Intel (INTC). It’s the same risk profile as its vanilla cousin but with a fraction of the capital requirement. Using nothing more than an in-the-money put and the market's post-PPI hysteria, he turned $400 of buying power into a $129 profit. Watch the video here.

Ultimate Vegas Insider Reveals His Super Bowl Picks 🏈

So far this year, early betting action has pushed the Kansas City Chiefs from -1.5 to -2 point favorites over the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 59, and history suggests this movement matters. In the past 17 Super Bowls, teams benefiting from early line movement (known as “closing line value”) have covered the spread 70.6% of the time. This "sharp" money typically flows in the first 48 hours after odds open, while public betting dominates the final 48 hours before kickoff. Will the trend continue? 

Professional NFL handicapper and author of Football Betting Made Easy, John Rothschild—whose very existence proves someone can beat this rigged carnival—joins The Prediction Trade from Las Vegas. Rothchild’s published 25-year track record is a standout among Vegas insiders. In this special segment, he shares his list of dumb NFL betting mistakes to avoid and then reveals his personal betting card, including this year’s Super Bowl winner, total points scored and the nine prop bets he plans to place. Watch this special episode here. 

Medical Groupthink and the Daily Aspirin Regimen 💊

For decades, the daily aspirin ritual was as unassailable as morning coffee, with millions of Americans dutifully popping their little 81 mg pills to keep their hearts healthy. Now, it turns out this pharmaceutical security blanket might be doing more harm than good. A staggering 29 million Americans, including 6.6 million bold souls who didn't even bother consulting a doctor, are clinging to this outdated practice. But before you flush your aspirin stash, there's a nuanced story about who benefits and who's playing Russian roulette with their gastric lining. The truth, as usual, is hiding in the details of three groundbreaking studies that have upended decades of medical gospel. Read Full Story

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