TGIT: The DOGE Dividend,
X Earnings and Autonomous Investing 

Waymo, WeRide, Ackman's Uber bet, self-driving safety, the iron fly, the new gold rush, DOGE haters, another new Rising Star and more. First time reading? Join other risk-takers, entrepreneurs, traders, investors, data geeks and alpha types. Sign up for free here.

Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is floating the idea of sending Americans "dividend" checks from its anticipated budget savings. The scheme would distribute 20% of DOGE's claimed $2 trillion in cuts—roughly $5,000 per qualifying household.

Trump, not one to resist putting his signature on government checks, is reportedly considering the idea. There's just one small problem. Only households paying net federal income tax would receive these magical rebate checks. This conveniently excludes roughly half of American households—Romney's infamous "47%”—who already rely on tax credits and assistance programs.

The plan is reminiscent of Biden’s relentless pursuit of student debt "forgiveness.” It was a cynical idea that would have punished fiscal responsibility and rewarded university bloat while handing the bill to working Americans without degrees. It would have transferred wealth from plumbers to future corporate lawyers, but wrapping the transfer in progressive packaging would have proven that even "equity" has its privileges.

The markets, naturally, are thrilled at the prospect of more government checks flying around the economy. And Republican lawmakers would be left explaining how helicopter money counts as conservative economics.

Unlike Musk’s critics (see Fake Financial News, below), we’re rooting for DOGE to succeed in reducing government bloat and entitlement in favor of efficiency and savings. If those savings do indeed materialize, they should be applied to our $36.5 trillion national debt.

But, if that DOGE dividend does end up in our mailbox, we're going to use it to purchase a beachfront timeshare in Gaza.

Stay lucky!

Editorial Director

Think those "autonomous" vehicles cruising the streets of San Francisco and Las Vegas are truly driving themselves? Not quite. There's a human babysitter watching from a remote command center, ready to take over when these high-tech taxis encounter anything more challenging than a typical Tuesday. But even with their digital training wheels, these semi-autonomous vehicles are proving dramatically safer than their human-driven counterparts. Waymo's robotaxis generate up to 92% fewer liability claims than conventional cars, suggesting the future of transportation might be closer—and safer—than we imagined. Read Full Story

While market speculators drool over Waymo's IPO prospects, this Alphabet (GOOG) offspring is methodically colonizing American cities with its robotic fleet. The irony? Former nemesis Uber (UBER) is now in bed with the very force threatening to make human drivers obsolete. For those salivating at the prospect of getting a piece of this autonomous pie, there's a perfectly good consolation prize: latching onto a piece of Alphabet. Its stock, at 23 times earnings, is the passenger's seat to this transportation revolution. Read Full Story

In America, human drivers average one crash in every 484,000 miles, while Waymo’s self-driving cars have one about every 1.26 million miles.

— ElectroIQ

Last quarter, WeRide (WRD), the seven-year-old autonomous driving wunderkind, brought in a modest $10 million in revenue and posted a spectacular $147 million loss. But after a 145% surge in its stock price so far this year, it’s trading at 180 times sales. (Yes, you read that right.) The company's robotaxis might be driverless, but its stock price seems to be operating without brakes or logic. Sure, the Nvidia (NVDA) seal of approval is compelling, but remember how that worked out for SoundHound AI (SOUN)? Read Full Story

Uber, the same company that weathered a fratboy CEO, driver revolts and endless regulatory battles, just earned a $2.3 billion vote of confidence from Wall Street's most discerning contrarian. Bill Ackman isn't just wagering on ride-shares—he's betting on a future where autonomous vehicles transform urban transport. With Uber finally posting its first annual profit and achieving a $160 billion market cap, the notorious skeptic sees what many have missed: a trillion-dollar revolution in motion. Read Full Story

Nick Battista is back with a new Life Cycle of a Trade. This time, it’s a real-world iron fly case study in Palantir Technologies (PLTR), showing the effects of volatility contraction (vega) and time decay (theta). Follow along as a Battista manages a position through a $15 price swing, turning a potential loss into a $91 profit. Watch the latest Life Cycle here.

The latest installment of the Rising Stars series brings you a lawn-mowing prodigy who parlayed his pre-teen hustle into a traveling trader lifestyle. While his middle school classmates were mastering Mario Kart, John Sabin was studying covered calls with grandpa, building a strategy that would eventually let him write his 9-to-5 resignation letter. Now, this financial nomad has conquered 100 countries—all financed through his successful trading. Watch him cover the systematic approach that enabled his location-independent trading, position sizing, risk management and portfolio techniques that can work from anywhere—even Antarctica. His story and video are here.

Gold bugs are having their moment. This morning, gold is trading at $2,965, within $10 of its all-time record high. This week's Cherry Picks taste tests the metals casino’s two flavors of speculation: the blue-chip behemoths in GDX, where four companies control 39% of the action, and their scrappier cousins in GDXJ, where the wealth is spread slightly thinner. Also, there’s a new trade idea. As the gold-silver ratio flirts with 90, Mike Rechenthin and Nicky Battista serve up a glittering options play in Newmont Mining (NEM). Newmont reports earnings after today's close. Read Full Story

When Elon Musk acquired Twitter for $44 billion in 2022, the chorus was deafening: Paul Krugman predicted a "death spiral," The Atlantic declared it a "disaster," and pundits lined up to forecast the platform's imminent demise. Fast forward to 2024, and X has doubled Twitter's best-ever profits, while slashing costs to a quarter of their previous levels. Now, as the company eyes new funding at its original $44 billion valuation and Morgan Stanley (MS) reports surging investor demand for X's debt, those apocalyptic predictions have aged like milk in the summer sun. Here is the story of how America's most controversial tech acquisition turned into its most unexpected success. We will leave it to you to answer how the “expert class” got it so spectacularly wrong. Read Full Story

More Cowbell

DOGE-like chainsaw tactics are winning bigly in Argentina. 

Transparency: Check out DOGE’s new Wall of Receipts. 

On thin ice: Geopolitical Face-Off tonight. (USA, USA!) 

JJ Kinahan, CEO (tastytrade at IG) talks AI and Mag7. 

TikTok’s trending stocks: Costco and Victoria’s Secret. 

Yogurt is linked to a lower risk of colorectal cancer. 

VOO surpasses SPY as world’s biggest ETF. 

Critical thinking: Is AI making us stupid? 

ICYMI: tastylive’s best videos of the week. 

ICYMI: Last week’s Luckbox TGIT 

Share the Luckbox—forward to a friend.
Subscribe for free here.

Luckbox Magazine is a product and service offered by tastylive, Inc. (“tastylive”). Luckbox Magazine content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involves risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. The information provided in Luckbox Magazine may not be appropriate for all individuals, and is provided without respect to any individual’s financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Transaction costs (commissions and other fees) are important factors and should be considered when evaluating any securities, futures, or digital asset transaction or trade. For simplicity, the examples and illustrations in these articles may not include transaction costs. Nothing contained in this magazine constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, promotion or offer by Luckbox Magazine or tastylive, Inc., or any of its subsidiaries, affiliates or assigns. While Luckbox Magazine and tastylive believe that the information contained in Luckbox Magazine is reliable and make efforts to assure its accuracy, the publisher disclaims responsibility for opinions and representation of facts contained therein. Active investing is not easy, so be careful!