There appears to be a degree of seasonality when analyzing Bitcoin’s performance over the years.
Q4 has historically been the best quarter for Bitcoin price performance since 2016, with average quarterly returns of 55%.
November has emerged as Bitcoin's standout month for price performance, delivering average returns of over 30% - making it the most profitable month for the cryptocurrency by a significant margin.
History doesn’t always repeat, but it often rhymes. Since the start of Q4 2024, Bitcoin is up around 8%.
Seasonality shows up in Bitcoin’s volatility too, with Q4 also being the most volatile quarter for bitcoin going back to 2016. On average Bitcoin has realized a volatility of over 100%. Not surprising, as we often witness a positive correlation between bitcoin price performance and volatility.
We’re in the middle of what would typically be Bitcoin’s most volatile quarter -- and we have an election tonight! What are the global crypto markets pricing in over the next week?
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COIN ($191) Calendarized Ratio Spread CRAB! (DEC/NOV) $11.09 Debit
COIN is one of the highest beta stocks to the crypto space (along with MSTR). If you think there might be some upside into the election, and then a dip after earnings, an upside CRAB trade might fit the assumption. Try a long DEC 200 call, short 2x the NOV 220 calls, and long the 240 NOV call to define the risk sets up with 13 long delta and some positive gamma up to 220.
MARA ($16) Short Put and Call Ratio (DEC) $1.92 Credit
MARA is one of the more prominent crypto miners. Sitting near lows, with IV at 120%, short premium is certainly juicy. Selling the 15 strike put, with the 1x/2x call ratio 17/21, trades at a $1.92 credit with some added profit potential up to 21, and only uses $950 in buying power.
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